[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 260554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Sun Jul 26 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Hanna is centered near 26.6N 98.0W at 26/0300 UTC or
30 nm W of Port Mansfield Texas moving WSW at 8 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed
is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous strong convection is S of
the center from 23N-26N between 96W-99W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 23N-28N between
95W-100W. Doppler radar shows an eye diameter of about 25 nm.
Hanna should then weaken rapidly inland into a tropical storm
tonight and tropical depression Sun over Deep South Texas and
NE Mexico. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

A tropical wave along 32W is producing a large area of
cloudiness and disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week
while the wave moves westward at around 15 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. There is a medium chance for tropical
cyclone formation within the next 48 hours.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A strong Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is several hundred miles
W of the Cabo Verde Islands, along 32W from 03N-20N, moving W at
10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W from 21N southward,
moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 180 nm of the
wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 81W/82W from 22N southward
moving west at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within
180 nm of the wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Senegal
near 14N17W to 14N24W to 10N40W to 09N48W. The ITCZ is W of a
tropical wave from 09N53W to the coast of Guyana near 07N58W.
Aside from convection mentioned in the Tropical Waves section,
scattered moderate convection is from 07N-12N between 10W-22W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N-11N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

See Special Features section above for details on Hurricane
Hanna.
Outside of Hanna immediate impacts, radar imagery shows scattered
showers along the coast of Louisiana N of 27N. Similar showers
are over the E Gulf E OF 85W. Scattered moderate convection is
over S Florida and the Straits of Florida. Generally, moderate to
fresh SE winds are occurring across the Gulf, and with high
pressure centered east of the Gulf through much of next week.
Pulses of strong SE winds are expected at least early next week
moving off the Yucatan Peninsula and then crossing portions of
the western Gulf. Seas will average 4 to 6 ft.

Hanna will weaken to a tropical storm near 26.2N 99.1W Sun
morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 25.4N 100.6W Sun evening, become a remnant low and move to
24.6N 101.9W Mon morning, and dissipate Mon evening.
The pressure gradient between Hanna and a ridge across the
remainder of the Gulf waters will support fresh to strong SE
winds over the western Gulf through Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is over the W Caribbean. See Above.
A 1010 mb low, the remnant of Gonzalo, is centered N of
Venezuela near 12N64W. Scattered showers are within 120 nm of
the low. Elsewhere, scattered moderate convection is over Haiti
and E Cuba. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
inland over Panama and N Colombia. Fresh trades are occurring
across most of the basin, with some strong winds over the south-
central Caribbean.

Expect fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean
through the forecast period. Fresh to strong SE winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras Sun night through Mon night.
A strong tropical wave will approach the Lesser Antilles by the
middle of the week increasing winds/seas across the eastern
Caribbean as it moves west.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough coupled with an upper-level low pressure
centered
over the N Bahamas is producing isolated moderate convection.
Otherwise, a broad ridge of high pressure, anticyclonic wind
flow
and mostly fair weather span the Atlantic Ocean, north of 24N
and east of 65W.

Over the W Atlantic, a ridge will dominate the forecast area,
supporting fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola
and the Windward Passage at night through Sun. Expect increasing
winds and seas E of 65W on Wed as a strong tropical wave
approaches the Lesser Antilles.

$$
Formosa
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