[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 270531
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
131 AM EDT Mon Jul 27 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Hanna is centered near 24.6N 101.7W at
27/0300 UTC or 110 mi WSW of Monterrey Mexico moving WSW at 7 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is mostly E of the center from 20N-28N between
97W-101W. Hanna will continue to weaken and move inland into
NE Mexico, and become a remnant low Mon morning. Please read the
latest WPC Public Advisory at:
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/tropical/tropical_advisories.
php?storm=HANNA for more details.

Embedded low pressure of 1010 mb on its associated tropical wave
is center near 12N40W. The system is moving W at 15 to
20 kt, and is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection from 08N-15N between 39W-45W. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form within the next
two to three days as the system nears the Lesser Antilles. There
is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next
48 hours. Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the
progress of this system. Refer to the NHC Tropical Weather
Outlook at hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is along the coast of W Africa with axis along
16W,
S of 19N, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong
convection is from 09N-15N between 13W-20W. The wave is well
depicted at 700 mb.

A tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles is along 59W,
S of 21N, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 120 nm
of the wave axis.

A strong tropical wave is analyzed in the Caribbean along 72W
from
South America to Hispaniola, moving W at 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 180 nm of the wave axis. This wave
is accompanied by east winds of 20 to 30 kt.

A western Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 87W from 22N
southward is beginning to move into Central America and the
eastern Pacific. It is moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis over
Honduras and Nicaragua..

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the west coast of Africa near
14N18W and extends to a 1010 mb low near 12N40W to 06N53W. Aside
from convection mentioned in the Special Features section above,
scattered moderate convection is from 06N-10N between 45W-50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on T.D. Hanna
over N Mexico.

Radar imagery shows isolated moderate convection over the E Gulf
E of 89W to include S Florida and the Straits of Florida.

Tropical Depression Hanna continues moving WSW across
northeast Mexico while weakening. The pressure gradient between
Hanna and a surface ridge across the Gulf waters will support
fresh to locally strong SE winds over the western Gulf through
Mon. Fresh winds are expected to pulse within about 90 nm of the
coast of Yucatan Peninsula during the evening hours due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Fresh trades cover most of the remainder of the basin, except
for gentle winds in the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate
convection is over the SW Caribbean in association with the east
Pacific monsoon trough.

Fresh to strong winds will prevail across the south-central
Caribbean through Thu. Fresh to strong SE winds are also
expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Tue night. A broad
area of low pressure is located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form within the next two or three days as the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles. This is forecast to bring an
increase in winds and seas across the NE Caribbean and the
Tropical N Atlantic waters by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for details on the embedded
low
on a tropical wave in the central tropical Atlantic.

Isolated moderate convection is over the N Bahamas. Elsewhere,
a 1021 mb high is centered over the W Atlantic near 30N66W.
Another 1026 mb high is centered over the E Atlantic near 32N38W.

A surface ridge will dominate the forecast area, supporting
fresh to occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the
Windward Passage at night through the forecast period. A broad
area of low pressure is located over the central tropical
Atlantic. Conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is
likely to form within the next two or three days as the system
approaches the Lesser Antilles. This is forecast to bring an
increase in winds and seas across the waters E of 65W by the
middle of the week.

$$
Formosa
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