[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240542
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0450 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm HANNA, at 24/0600 UTC, is in the
Gulf of Mexico, near 26.4N 91.8W. HANNA is about 320 nm/575 km
to the ESE of Corpus Christi in Texas. HANNA is moving toward
the WNW, or 285 degrees, 6 knots. The estimated minimum central
pressure is 1002 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 35
knots with gusts to 45 knots. The center of HANNA is expected to
move across the northwestern Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and make
landfall along the Texas coast on Saturday.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong is from 22N northward from 87W westward.
Isolated moderate is from 21N southward between 90W and 93W.
Scattered moderate to strong is in the eastern part of the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico. HAZARDS AFFECTING
LAND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area
by Friday night or Saturday morning. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area by Friday night or Saturday
morning. HANNA is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain.
Isolated maximum totals of 10 inches are possible through
Monday, along the Gulf Coast of the United States from Louisiana
to south Texas, and inland to the Mexican states of Coahuila,
Nuevo Leon, and northern Tamaulipas. It is possible that this
rain may result in life-threatening flash flooding, rapid rises
on small streams, and isolated minor to moderate river flooding.
Swells generated by HANNA are expected to increase, and affect
much of the Texas and Louisiana coasts during the next few days.
It is likely for these swells to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions.  Please consult advisories and bulletins
from your local weather office. Please read the latest NHC
Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

The center of Tropical Storm GONZALO, at 24/0600 UTC, is in the
Atlantic Ocean, near 9.9N 51.2W. GONZALO is about 605 nm/1105 km
to the E of the Southern Windward Islands. GONZALO is moving W,
or 275 degrees, 12 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure
is 1000 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with
gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong
is within 150 nm of the center in the W quadrant. More
strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days.
GONZALO is expected to become a hurricane on Thursday. Tropical
storm-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles/55 km from the
center. GONZALO is expected to move near or over the southern
Windward Islands this weekend. It is possible that GONZALO may
bring direct impacts from winds and heavy rainfall. Interests in
the southern Windward Islands should monitor the progress of
GONZALO. It is too soon to determine the magnitude and the
timing of those impacts. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and
the Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 21N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 18N southward
between 30W and 47W. T.S. GONZALO is about 825 nm to the west of
the 36W tropical wave.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 63W/64W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 20 to 25 knots. High pressure is
building to the north of the tropical wave. The steering flow
has strengthened. The forward motion of the tropical wave has
increased. The new speed is comparatively much faster than the
average forward speed of tropical waves, which normally is 10 to
15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate and isolated
strong is from 17N to 21N between 61W and 66W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 68W/69W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Precipitation:
isolated moderate to locally strong is from 16N to 21N between
the Mona Passage and the Windward Passage.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong covers the
areas from 16N in the NW Caribbean Sea to the Straits of Florida
between the Windward Passage and the Yucatan Channel. Isolated
moderate also is from 14N southward from 79W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau 12N16W, to 09N22W, curving to 11N30W and 10N43W.
Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters is within 200 nm on
the northern side of the monsoon trough between the coast of
Africa and 20W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
in clusters within 200 nm to the south of the monsoon trough
from 27W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is
elsewhere from 18N southward from 47W eastward. A tropical wave
is along  36W from 21N southward. T.S. GONZALO is about 825 nm
to the west of the 36W tropical wave.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Storm Hanna near 26.2N 91.4W 1002 mb at 11 PM EDT
moving WNW at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds 35 kt gusts 45 kt.
Hanna will move to 26.6N 92.8W Fri morning; 27.1N 94.5W Fri
evening; 27.2N 96.3W Sat morning; inland to 27.2N 97.8W Sat
evening; inland to 27.2N 97.8W Sat evening; then weaken rapidly
over land on Sun.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is in
Colombia from 06N to 10N between 73W and 76W; and in NW
Venezuela from 09N to 10.5N between Lake Maracaibo and the
border with Colombia. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 14N
southward from 75W westward, in the SW corner of the Caribbean
Sea. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W/81W, from 20N
southward.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo near 9.9N 50.6W 1000 mb at 11
PM EDT moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60
kt. Gonzalo will move to 10.2N 52.5W Fri morning; 10.7N 55.1W
Fri evening; strengthen to a hurricane near 11.5N 58.2W Sat
morning; 12.3N 61.3W Sat evening; weaken to a tropical storm
near 13.3N 64.4W Sun morning; and 13.9N 67.3W Sun evening.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An inverted trough extends from 250 mb to 700 mb. Cyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward from 65W
westward. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate
and locally strong is from 20N northward from 60W westward.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow and fair weather span the
Atlantic Ocean from 25N northward from 80W eastward.

A ridge to the north of the area will support fresh to
occasionally strong winds near Hispaniola and the Windward
Passage, at night, through Sunday. The wind speeds and the sea
heights will increase, to the E of
65W, as high pressure builds across the western Atlantic Ocean.

$$
mt
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