[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 240005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.8N 49.4W at 23/2100
UTC or 700 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm east and 90
nm west semicircles of Gonzalo. It is expected to move fast to
the west over the next few days, before moving WNW at an even
faster pace for the start of next week. Strengthen is forecast,
and Gonzalo is forecast to reach hurricane strength Fri night.
Weakening is possible later in the weekend. For more information,
please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 26.1N 90.7W at
23/2100 UTC or 330 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving WNW at 7
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm south and
150 nm north semicircles of the depression. The depression is
forecast to move WNW for the next day or so, before turning west
for the weekend. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression
may become a tropical storm tonight. Swells generated by the
depression are expected to increase, and affect much of the
Texas and Louisiana coasts in a day or two which may cause life-
threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
advisories and bulletins from your local weather office. For
more information, please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N to 17N between 31W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 16N to 21N between 58W and 63W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Convection previously associated
with this wave has diminished.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 17N to 20N between 76W and 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 12N27W to 09N38W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within
240 nm south of the monsoon trough between 12W and 22W.
Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 35W and
44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

The major concern in the Gulf is Tropical Depression Eight,
which is near 26.1N 90.7W at 5 PM EDT moving WNW at 7 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate to isolated strong convection associated with TD Eight
covers the majority of the north-central and northwest basin
while it rainbands covers most of the eastern half gulf E of
90W. For further information, see the Special Features Section
above.

Eight will strengthen to a tropical storm near 26.5N 91.9W Fri
morning, move to 27.1N 93.6W Fri afternoon, 27.5N 95.3W Sat
morning, 27.6N 97.0W Sat afternoon, inland to 27.5N 98.5W Sun
morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical depression
near 27.3N 100.0W Sun afternoon. Eight will move inland near
27.0N 102.0W Mon afternoon.

Otherwise, winds will be variable light to gentle in the SW
basin.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The rainbands of Tropical Depression Eight in the Gulf of Mexico
continue to affect Cuba with heavy showers and tstms. This
shower activity extends to southern Cuba adjacent waters. A
tropical wave with axis near 79W support this convection as
well. A second tropical wave is moving across the central
Caribbean supporting showers and tstms in Hispaniola, the
Windward passage and the Mona Passage. A third tropical wave
over the eastern basin support similar shower activity  across
the Leeward Islands.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.8N 49.4W at 5 PM EDT moving W
at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. The latest
advisory has Gonzalo crossing the Windward Islands late Sat
afternoon as a hurricane. Gonzalo is forecast to weaken to a
tropical storm near 13.0N 62.6W Sun morning. See the special
features section for further details.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 33N51W, with
associated ridge extending westward along 32W. The ridge north
of the area will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds
off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage
during the night hours this weekend. Winds and seas will
increase E of 65W as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic.

$$
KONARIK/RAMOS
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net