[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 232200
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
600 PM EDT Thu Jul 23 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 9.8N 49.4W at 23/2100
UTC or 700 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 11
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm east and 90
nm west semicircles of Gonzalo. It is expected to move fast to
the west over the next few days, before moving WNW at an even
faster pace for the start of next week. Strengthen is forecast,
and Gonzalo is forecast to reach hurricane strength Fri night.
Weakening is possible later in the weekend. For more information,
please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details.

Tropical Depression Eight is centered near 26.1N 90.7W at
23/2100 UTC or 330 nm ESE of Port Oconnor Texas moving WNW at 7
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is noted within 210 nm south and 150
nm north semicircles of the depression. The depression is forecast
to move WNW for the next day or so, before turning west for the
weekend. Strengthening is forecast, and the depression may become
a tropical storm tonight. Swells generated by the depression are
expected to increase, and affect much of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts in a day or two which may cause life- threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult advisories and bulletins
from your local weather office. For more information, please read
the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml, and the
Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/
MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 11N to 17N between 31W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
from 16N to 21N between 58W and 63W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 15 knots. Convection previously associated with
this wave has diminished.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W, from 21N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 17N to 20N between 76W and 79W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N14W to 12N27W to 09N38W.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 240
nm south of the monsoon trough between 12W and 22W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 35W and 44W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Tropical Depression Eight is near 26.3N 90.7W 1007 mb at
11 AM EDT moving WNW at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds 30 kt
gusts 40 kt. TD Eight will move to 26.7N 91.8W this evening,
strengthen to a tropical storm near 27.4N 93.4W Fri morning,
27.8N 94.9W Fri evening, 28.0N 96.5W Sat morning, inland to 28.0N
98.0W Sat evening, and move inland and weaken to a tropical
depression near 27.9N 99.3W Sun morning. The system is expected
to move inland near 27.5N 101.0W by early Mon.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the western Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is near 9.6N 48.3W 997 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving W at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt.
Gonzalo will move to 9.8N 50.0W this evening, strengthen to a
hurricane near 10.1N 52.7W Fri morning, 10.5N 55.7W Fri evening,
11.2N 59.0W Sat morning, 11.9N 62.3W Sat evening, and 12.6N
65.4W Sun morning. Gonzalo will weaken to a tropical storm near
14.0N 71.4W early Mon.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure of 1028 mb is centered near 33N51W, with associated
ridge extending westward along 32W.

This ridge will support pulses of fresh to locally strong winds
off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the Windward Passage
during the night hours this weekend. Winds and seas will
increase E of 65W as high pressure builds across the western
Atlantic.

$$
KONARIK
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