[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 241017
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1016 UTC Fri Jul 24 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Hanna is centered near 26.7N 92.4W at 24/0900 UTC
or 270 nm ESE of Corpus Christi Texas moving WNW at 8 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is observed within 120 nm in the northeast
quadrant, and within 90 nm elsewhere. Scattered moderate
convection is also noted within a band east of the storm, from
23N to 26N between 88W and 90W. Seas are reaching 11 ft in the
northeast quadrant of Hanna, but will build through the morning. Hanna
is expected to strengthen slightly before making landfall on the
coast of Texas Sat afternoon. Please read the latest NHC Public
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT3.shtml and
Forecast/ Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT3.shtml for more details.

Tropical Storm Gonzalo is centered near 10.0N 51.8W at 24/0900
UTC or 560 nm E of the Southern Windward Islands moving W at 12
kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is observed within 90 nm of the center of
Gonzalo. Seas are reaching 15 ft in the northeast quadrant of the
center. Gonzalo is expected to reach minimal hurricane strength
by early Sat afternoon as it approaches the southern Windward
Islands near Barbados and Tobago, then gradually weaken as it
moves through the eastern Caribbean through early next week.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 07N between
33W and 39W.

Two Caribbean Sea tropical waves are noted near 66W and 70W,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 20N to 22N between 65W and 70W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 82W south of 20N, moving
westward 15 knots. No significant convection is noted.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Guinea-Bissau 12N16W, to 09N22W, curving to 11N30W and 10N43W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N
to 15n between 16W and 25W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Outside of the immediate area of TS Hanna, moderate to fresh SE
winds are noted across the central and eastern Gulf, with 4 to 6
ft seas. Light breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident over the
western Gulf. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
observed beyond the ongoing activity related to Hanna.

For the forecast, a ridge will build starting late Sat east to
west from roughly Tampa, Florida to South Texas in the wake of
Hanna. Winds and seas will diminish accordingly into early next
week, although fresh evening winds are possible off Yucatan due
to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds persist across the basin this
morning. Seas are 4 to 6 ft except for 2 to 4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean. Clusters of thunderstorms are active off
southeast Cuba, with isolated showers over the eastern Caribbean.

Gonzalo is forecast to be a minimal hurricane when it moves
through the southern Windward Islands later in the day on
Saturday, but will start to gradually weaken as it enters the
eastern Caribbean, reaching 13.0N 63.3W Sun morning, 13.7N 66.6W
Sun afternoon, and 14.0N 69.9W Mon morning, before dissipating
by early Tue.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

West of 55W, the subtropical ridge is north of the area,
extending east to west along roughly 33N. The gradient between
the ridge and tropical waves over the Caribbean is supporting
moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas mainly south of
22N. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere with 3 to 5 ft
seas in open waters. An upper trough over the northern Bahamas is
supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms south of 23N
between 65W and 70W. Little change is expected in the pattern
through early next week.

Farther east, high pressure dominates the central Atlantic north
of 20N. A large area of fresh trade winds are observed between
the high pressure and TS Gonzalo in the deep tropics, between 45W
and 55W. Seas are 8 to 9 ft in this area. Strong NE winds and 8
to 9 ft seas are noted off the coast Africa, north of 20N and
east of 30W, to the north of a large area of thunderstorms moving
off the coast.

$$
Christensen
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