[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191724
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
124 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 29W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 12N between 27W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 39W, from 17N southward,
moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 37W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are from 07N to 12N
between 53W and 57W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 73W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 20 kt. Showers are noted across western
Hispaniola.

The axis of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico
extending southward into the eastern North Pacific, moving west at
20 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near 15N17W
to 19N27W to 07N43W. The ITCZ continues from 07N43W to 08N56W,
then resumes from 08N57W to the coast of Venezuela near 08N69W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the
monsoon trough from 08N-13N between 12W-32W. Scattered showers
are within 70 nm of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO

At 1500 UTC, a trough is analyzed in the west-central Gulf from
29N91W to 23N90W. Scattered moderate convection is seen across
much of the Gulf, N of 22N between 82W-95W. Light to gentle
easterly winds are noted across the basin. Seas range 2-5 ft.

A weak surface trough will move westward across the northern Gulf
through early Mon. A trough associated with a tropical wave will
move into the SE Gulf late Tue, then move west-northwestward
across the central and NW Gulf through Thu. Increasing winds and
seas are possible by midweek in association with this feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered thunderstorms are noted across the Greater Antilles in
addition to the Yucatan Channel and along the Yucatan coast.
Scattered moderate convection is also observed in the SW Caribbean
along the coasts of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Otherwise,
showers are seen in the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh
winds are north of Colombia. Gentle to moderate trades prevail
across the remainder of the basin. Seas range 2-6 ft with 9 ft
north of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for
the next several days. Winds and seas will increase E of the
Lesser Antilles Tue night through Thu night as a high pressure
ridge strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is along the Bahamas from 29N76W to 24N76W.
Another surface trough is noted north of Hispaniola from 26N69W to
21N69W. This trough has fresh winds to the west of it. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is noted across both of
these troughs from 21N-28N between 67W-79W. Another trough extends
from a 1019 mb low near 31N58W to 27N56W with showers near the
trough. Two more troughs are analyzed in the central Atlantic, one
from 22N51W to 17N54W and the other from 31N42W to 24N44W with
showers near both of these features. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin. Seas range 3-6 ft.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next several nights. Expect freshening
winds over the waters S of 25N through early this week as a low
pressure trough moves westward across the region. Winds and seas
will increase E of 65W Tue night through Thu night as a high
pressure ridge strengthens north of the area.

$$
AReinhart
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