[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 192325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 32W from 02N-19N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted south of 11N within
the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 41W from 04N-17N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of
the wave mainly south of 10N, within the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 57W from 02N-19N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted within this wave
south of 12N, affecting portions of South America.

The axis of a tropical wave is along 74W from 08N-20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over
the northern portion of the wave north of 16N affecting Hispaniola
and adjacent waters.

The axis of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico
extending from 21N southward into the eastern North Pacific,
moving west at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is associated
with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 16N17W
to 09N41W. The ITCZ continues from 09N41W to 08N60W. Aside from
the convection related to the tropical waves described above,
scattered showers are noted within the monsoon trough.

GULF OF MEXICO

A surface trough is analyzed in the central Gulf from 30N93W to
24N91W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and east of
this trough between 86W-91W. Light to gentle easterly winds are
noted across the basin, with seas ranging between 2-5 ft.

The surface trough will move westward across the northern Gulf
through early Mon. A trough associated with a tropical wave will
move into the SE Gulf late Tue, then move west-northwestward
across the central and NW Gulf through Thu. Increasing winds and
seas are possible by midweek in association with this feature.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving
across the basin.

Scattered moderate convection is noted over the northern Caribbean
north of 17N and west of 70W. Similar activity is also noted over
Central America, but this is mostly related to the proximity of
the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds prevail north of
Colombia, while gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
remainder of the basin. Seas range between 2-6 ft across the
area, with 7-9 ft north of Colombia.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean this week. Elsewhere,
gentle to moderate trade winds will persist across the region for
the next several days. Winds and seas will increase E of the
Lesser Antilles Tue night through Thu night as a high pressure
ridge strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough is along the Bahamas from 29N77W to 26N78W.
To the east, another surface trough is noted north of Hispaniola
from 27N68W to 23N71W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
with both of these troughs south of 27N between 67W-79W. Another
trough extends from a 1016 mb low near 32N50W to 27N57W with no
significant convection at this time. One more trough is analyzed
from 28N44W to 22N45W. Surface ridging prevails across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 33N63W and
a 1027 mb high centered near 41N27W. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin, with seas ranging between 3-6 ft.

The high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next several nights. Expect freshening
winds over the waters S of 25N through early this week as a low
pressure trough moves westward across the region. Winds and seas
will increase E of 65W Tue night through Thu night as a high
pressure ridge strengthens north of the area.

$$
ERA
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net