[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 191004
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
604 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28/29W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 06N to 10N between 24W and 31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 38W, from 15N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 35W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are from 07N to 11N between
52W and 56W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 72W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 20 kt. Showers are noted south of Hispaniola
within 60 nm of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is over the SW Gulf of Mexico
extending southward into the eastern North Pacific, moving west at
20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the eastern
Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 15N17W to 11N23W to 08N45W. The
ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 08N52W, then resumes from 09N56W to
09N61W. Aside from convection mentioned in the tropical waves
section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 12N east of 40W to the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are over the eastern
Gulf. The northern extent of a tropical wave is moving across the
SW Gulf of Mexico. The wave is producing scattered moderate
convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the Gulf waters.

Mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail
through early next week. A surface trough will cross the Gulf Tue
through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong tradewinds prevail over the south- central
Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted in the north- central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across the remainder
of the basin.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong trade
winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle of next
week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across the region for the next several days. Winds and seas will
increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through Thu night as
high pressure strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is analyzed from 29N74W to the NW Bahamas.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 21N-
27N west of 65W across the Bahamas to the Florida Straits. A 1020
mb surface high is centered near Bermuda. Farther east, a surface
trough extends from 32N48N to 27N56W. Scattered moderate showers
prevail within 30 NM E of the trough. Another surface trough is
from 31N40W to 24N43W. Moderate to locally fresh winds prevail
west of 60W, and south of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to the
Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. Expect freshening
winds over the waters S of 24N through early next week as a low
pressure trough moves westward across the region. Winds and seas
will increase E of 65W Tue night through Thu night as high
pressure strengthens north of the area.

$$
AL
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