[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 190446
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1245 AM EDT Sun Jul 19 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, from 20N southward,
moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 11.5N between 21W and 29W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 37W, from 15N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 34W and 40W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 53W from 17N southward,
moving west at 15 kt. Isolated showers are within 180 nm of
the wave axis from 05N-12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 20 kt. Showers are noted near the landmasses
of Hispaniola and South America, but not over the open waters of
the Caribbean.

The axis of a tropical wave extends from 22N90W to 06N93W, moving
west at 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted over the eastern Bay of Campeche.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Dakar Senegal to 12N21W to 10N27W
to 08N45W. The ITCZ continues from 08N45W to 08N51W, then resumes
from 09N55W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N61W. Aside from
convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 11N
between 30W and 34W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough continues to meander across the central Gulf
from 29N87W to 23N89W. Scattered moderate showers and tstorms
are over the eastern Gulf east of 89W. The northern end of a
tropical wave is producing scattered moderate isolated strong
convection over the eastern Bay of Campeche. A recent ASCAT
pass shows moderate E winds over much of the Gulf of Mexico.

A surface trough will move westward across the northern Gulf
through Mon. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas will prevail through early next week. Another trough
will cross the Gulf Tue through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered moderate showers and tstorms are noted in the NW and
north-central Caribbean, N of 17N between 71W-86W. Isolated
moderate convection is in the far SW Caribbean near the coasts of
Costa Rica and Panama. Fresh trades are in the south-central
Caribbean, south of 15N between 68W-79W. Fresh to locally strong
NE to E winds are in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere across the
basin, gentle to moderate trades are noted.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area
and low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through the middle
of next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will
prevail across the region for the next several days. Winds and
seas will increase E of the Lesser Antilles Tue night through
Thu night as high pressure strengthens north of the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad upper-level area of low pressure covers the area to the
east and northeast of the Bahamas. A weak surface trough is
analyzed along 73.5W from 24N-28N. Scattered showers and isolated
tstorms are seen from 21N-27N between 65W-83W, including the
Florida Straits and NW Bahamas. Additional showers are noted near
the northernmost Leeward Islands. A 1022 mb surface high is
centered near Bermuda. Farther east, a surface trough extends
from 32N48N to 27N56W. Another surface trough is from 31N39W to
25N42W, and a third trough is from 22N49W to 18N51W. Light
showers are possible near all three troughs.

A high pressure ridge north of the area will support pulses of
fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola and near the entrance to
the Windward Passage for the next couple of nights. Expect
freshening winds over the waters S of 24N today through early
this week as a low pressure trough moves westward across the
region. Winds and seas will increase E of 65W Tue night
through Thu night as high pressure strengthens north of the
area.

$$
Hagen
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net