[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
601 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W/27W, from 19N southward,
moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 05N to 11N between 26W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 43W from 17N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are noted from
07N to 09N between 42W and 45W,

The axis of a tropical wave is near 59W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is noted from 08N to 10N within 60 nm east of
the wave axis.

Th axis of a tropical wave is near 72W from 22N southward, moving
westward 15 knots. No significant deep convection is noted with
this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 16.5N16W to 10N26W to 08N42W. The
ITCZ extends from 08.5N44.5W to 09N57W. Aside from convection
noted in the tropical waves section, Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted within 150 nm N and 300 nm S of the
monsoon trough east of 36W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 50W and 58W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A ridge of high pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico.
Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the SW Gulf. Light to gentle
winds prevail over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail
elsewhere.

A surface trough will move across Florida into the southeast
Gulf today. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected
across the region, except for locally fresh winds near the coast
of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong trades prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh trades prevail over the north central
Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the south central Caribbean, with gentle
to moderate trade winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A N-to-S oriented surface trough extends just east of Florida.
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is spreading
across the Bahamas into eastern Florida. Farther east, another
surface trough extends from 32N59W to 25N66W. Scattered showers
are noted within 30 nm of the trough axis. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail across much of the Atlantic waters, except for
fresh to locally strong winds just N of Hispaniola into the
entrance of the Windward Passage.

The trough east of Florida will move west of the area today. A
surface ridge will build north of the area. This pattern will
support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola and
the entrance to the Windward Passage over the next couple of
nights.


$$
AL
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