[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 170613
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0540 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W/26W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is 42W from 17N southward,
moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is part of the monsoon trough/ITCZ precipitation.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Any nearby precipitation is
part of the monsoon ITCZ precipitation.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 22N southward,
moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: no significant deep
convective precipitation is accompanying this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of
Senegal, near 14N17W, to 09N30W, to 07N40W. The ITCZ continues
is along 08N/09N between 42W and 56W. Precipitation: widely
scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is from 04N
to 17N from 36W eastward, and from 07N to 10N between 50W and
60W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An inverted upper level trough is in the east central-to-central
Gulf of Mexico. cyclonic circulation center is in the NE corner
of the Gulf of Mexico. Broken to overcast multilayered
convective debris clouds cover the area that is from 23N
northward. Earlier widely scattered to scattered moderate and
isolated strong precipitation has been weakening with time.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

High pressure in the NE Gulf of Mexico will drift northward
through Friday, in advance of a surface trough that will be
moving across Florida into the SE Gulf of Mexico. Gentle to
moderate winds, and slight seas, are expected across the region,
except for locally fresh winds near the coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from a Mona Passage cyclonic
circulation center, to 14N78W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is in the western sections of Haiti.

An upper level trough extends from a Guatemala cyclonic
circulation center, northeastward, into the NW corner of the
Caribbean Sea. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to
isolated strong is in clusters, from 15N northward from 76W
westward.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N, from 74W in Colombia beyond
Costa Rica. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong is in a
cluster that is from 09N to 10N along 73W and the border of
Colombia and Venezuela. Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the SW
Caribbean Sea, from 12N southward, from 74W westward.

The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north of the
area, and climatological low pressure in Colombia, will maintain
fresh to strong trade winds in the south central Caribbean Sea,
and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A N-to-S oriented surface trough extends from 23N to 31N along
77W/78W, between the Bahamas and Florida. Precipitation: Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong covers the Atlantic Ocean,
and Florida, from 23N northward between 70W in the Atlantic
Ocean and 85W in the Gulf of Mexico, including across parts of
Florida.

A surface trough is along 31N59W 28N63W 24N67W. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is on
the western side of the trough, within 60 nm of the trough, from
26N to 28N. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 20N northward
between 50W and 70W.

A trough in the Bahamas will move west of the area through
Friday, as a surface ridge builds to the north of the area. This
pattern will support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off
Hispaniola, and near the entrances to the Windward Passage
during the next couple of nights.

$$
mt
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