[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162353
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W
from 02N-18N, moving westward at an estimated 24 hour speed of
15 kt. Less convective activity is currently being observed with
this wave compared to 24 hours ago as it is beginning to move
through a more stable surrounding atmospheric environment.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 09N29W and
within 30 nm of line from 06N27W to 07N31W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from
02N-18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A trough lags behind this
wave from 11N36W to 16N39W. Both of these features are
surrounded by a stable atmospheric environment. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are seen from 07N to 09N between 36W-41W.

A rather ill-defined central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis
along 59W south of 19N. It is moving westward at an estimated 24
hour speed of 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms behind this wave are moving quickly westward from
09N to 12N between 54W-58W. Isolated showers also moving quickly
westward are elsewhere south of 19N between 55W-61W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 74W
from 09N-21N, moving westward at the fast pace of 20 kt. Over
water, isolated showers and small thunderstorms are west of the
wave from 17N to 20N from between 75W to Jamaica. The northern
part of this wave may be helping to enhance the afternoon
thunderstorm activity over the southwest part of Haiti. Isolated
weak showers moving quickly to the west are east of the wave
axis to near 69W and from 15N to 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal,
near 15N17W and continues to 09N30W to 08N33W and to 07N42W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 08N50W and to 09N58W. Aside from the convection
described above associated to tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon
trough between east of 23W to the coast of Africa. Similar
activity is from 08N to 11N east to inland the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low remains over the north-central Gulf of
Mexico near 29N88W. Scattered to numerous moderate showers and
thunderstorms continue over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
north of 25N between 87W-93W, including portions of the
Louisiana coast. A 1019 mb surface high is analyzed near 29N89W.
Relatively weak high pressure covers the area. Broad gentle to
moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

As for the forecast, the high pressure will drift northward
through Fri ahead of a surface trough moving across Florida into
the southeast Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are
expected across the region, except for locally fresh winds near
the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A small upper-level low is over the Mona Passage area. A trough
extends from it south-southwestward to near 15N72W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most parts of the
Mona Passage. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen over
the most of the interior sections of Haiti and over the south-
central section of the Dominican Republic. Similar activity is
moving westward over the waters just west of Jamaica and over
the waters just east and and west of the Cayman Islands.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms that developed from daytime
heating over the interior of Cuba are moving west-southwestward,
with some of this activity reaching the southern Cuban coastal
waters. Subsidence and dry air continue over just about the
entire basin. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
confined to the far SW Caribbean south of 12N and between the
coast of northwestern Colombia and northern Panama.

As for the forecast, high pressure north of the area and a
forecast series of tropical waves moving through the basin will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds over the south central
Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade winds elsewhere for the
next few days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak upper-level low is over the NW Bahamas, while at the
surface a trough extends from near 30N78W south to over the NW
Bahamas and to the coast of Cuba at 23N79W. These feature are
are leading to an unstable atmosphere over this section of the
Atlantic. As a result, scattered showers and thunderstorms south
of 27N and west of 73W reaching to Florida coast Straits of
Florida. Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from
near 32N61W to a small upper low over the Mona Passage area. A
surface trough is analyzed from near 31N56W to 25N63W. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are increasing within 60 nm of 27N63W,
and within 30 nm of a line from 29N61W to 27N63W. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms, moving quickly westward, are noted
elsewhere from 23N to 28N between the trough and 73W.

A 1023 mb high center is near 31N46W. High pressure covers the
remainder of the area.

As for the forecast, the trough over the Bahamas will move west
of the area through Fri, as a surface ridge builds north of the
area. This pattern will support pulses of fresh to strong trade
winds off Hispaniola and near the entrances to the Windward
Passage over the next couple of nights.

$$
Aguirre
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