[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 162323
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
715 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2345 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 29W/30W
from 02N-18N, moving westward at an estimated 24 hour speed of
15 kt. Less convective activity is currently being observed with
this wave compared to 24 hours ago as it is beginning to move
through a more stable surrounding atmospheric environment.
Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 09N29W and
within 30 nm of line from 06N27W to 07N31W.

An central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 40W from
02N-18N, moving westward at 10 kt. A trough lags behind this
wave from 11N36W to 16N39W. Both of these features are
surrounded by a stable atmospheric environment. Isolated showers
and thunderstorms are seen from 07N to 09N between 36W-41W.

A rather ill-defined central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis
along 59W south of 19N. It is moving westward at an estimated 24
hour speed of 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms behind this wave are moving quickly westward from
09N to 12N between 54W-58W. Isolated showers also moving quickly
westward are elsewhere south of 19N between 55W-61W.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave has its axis along 74W
from 09N-21N, moving westward at the fast pace of 20 kt. Over
water, isolated showers and small thunderstorms are west of the
wave from 17N to 20N from between 75W to Jamiaca. The northern
part of this wave may be helping to enhance the afternoon
thunderstorm activity over the southwest part of Haiti. Isolated
weak showers moving quickly to the west are east of the wave
axis to near 69W and from 15N to 17N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal,
near 15N17W and continues to 09N30W to 08N33W and to 07N42W,
where latest scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to
the ITCZ to 08N50W and to 09N58W. Aside from the convection
described above associated to tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection is noted within 120 nm south of the monsoon
trough between east of 23W to the coast of Africa. Similar
activity is from 08N to 11N east to inland the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low continues to persist over the NE to north-
central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous moderate showers
and thunderstorms continue over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
from 26.5N-31N between 87W-92W, including portions of the coast
from Alabama to SE Louisiana. A 1019 mb surface high is located
just to the SE of the area of precipitation near 27N87W. Broad
gentle to moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

High pressure in the NE Gulf will drift northward through Fri
ahead of a surface trough moving across Florida into the southeast
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected
across the region, except for locally fresh winds near the coast
of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Mona Passage to about
14N80W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen
north of 16N between, mainly from the SW tip of Haiti through
Jamaica, through the Cayman Islands to the western tip of Cuba.
Subsidence and dry air cover much of the eastern and southern
Caribbean. The monsoon trough is along 09N over Panama. Any
precipitation in the far SW Caribbean is located south of 10N.

High pressure north of the area and a series of tropical waves
moving through the basin will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
over the south central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade
winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough and a weak upper-level trough are located
north of the NW Bahamas and east of north-central Florida.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the area, extending to
the east coast of Florida and southward through the Florida
Straits. Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from
32N62W to the Mona Passage. A surface trough is from 31N56W to
25N62W. A line of scattered showers and tstorms about 90 nm wide
extends from near 29N60W to 23N67W.

A trough over the Bahamas will move west of the area through Fri,
as a surface ridge builds north of the area. This pattern will
support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola and
near the entrances to the Windward Passage over the next couple of
nights.

$$
HAGEN/Aguirre
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