[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 161612
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1212 PM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28/29W, from 02N-18N,
moving west at 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is
from 05N-12N between 23W-32W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W from 02N-16N, moving
west at 10 kt. A separate surface trough is analyzed from 12N36W
to 16N38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between
34W-41W.

A weak tropical wave is along 57W from 20N southward, moving
west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 210 nm east
of the wave axis from 09N-12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 09N-21N, moving
west at 20 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with an upper-
level trough over the central Caribbean. Scattered moderate
showers and isolated tstorms are seen from 16N-20N between 70W-
80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal sections of Senegal,
near 14.5N17W, to 07N33W to 07N42W. The ITCZ continues from 07N42W
to 08N56W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the Tropical
Waves section, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
along the coast of Africa from 06N-14N, east of 22W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper-level low continues to persist over the NE to north-
central Gulf of Mexico. Scattered to numerous moderate showers
and thunderstorms continue over the north-central Gulf of Mexico
from 26.5N-31N between 87W-92W, including portions of the coast
from Alabama to SE Louisiana. A 1019 mb surface high is located
just to the SE of the area of precipitation near 27N87W. Broad
gentle to moderate surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the
entire area.

High pressure in the NE Gulf will drift northward through Fri
ahead of a surface trough moving across Florida into the southeast
Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are expected
across the region, except for locally fresh winds near the coast
of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough extends from the Mona Passage to about
14N80W. Scattered moderate showers and isolated tstorms are seen
north of 16N between, mainly from the SW tip of Haiti through
Jamaica, through the Cayman Islands to the western tip of Cuba.
Subsidence and dry air cover much of the eastern and southern
Caribbean. The monsoon trough is along 09N over Panama. Any
precipitation in the far SW Caribbean is located south of 10N.

High pressure north of the area and a series of tropical waves
moving through the basin will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
over the south central Caribbean, and gentle to moderate trade
winds elsewhere.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough and a weak upper-level trough are located
north of the NW Bahamas and east of north-central Florida.
Scattered showers and tstorms are seen in the area, extending to
the east coast of Florida and southward through the Florida
Straits. Farther east, an upper-level trough axis extends from
32N62W to the Mona Passage. A surface trough is from 31N56W to
25N62W. A line of scattered showers and tstorms about 90 nm wide
extends from near 29N60W to 23N67W.

A trough over the Bahamas will move west of the area through Fri,
as a surface ridge builds north of the area. This pattern will
support pulses of fresh to strong trade winds off Hispaniola and
near the entrances to the Windward Passage over the next couple of
nights.

$$
HAGEN
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net