[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 171646
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1246 PM EDT Fri Jul 17 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 28W, from 18N southward,
moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N-11N between 27W-31W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 44W from 14N southward,
moving westward at 10 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 60W/61W, from 20N southward,
moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. Isolated showers are moving
across the Lesser Antilles, otherwise no significant convection is
associated with this wave.

The axis of a tropical wave in the Caribbean Sea is near 78W from
21N southward, moving westward 15 knots. Isolated strong
thunderstorms are seen in between Jamaica and Cuba, otherwise no
significant convection is associated with this wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Senegal near 13N17W
to 10N25W to 07N39W. A 1013 mb low was noted north of the monsoon
trough near 09N36W. The ITCZ continues from 07N39W to 06N44W, then
continues from 07N41W to 10N59W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is along the monsoon trough near the African
coast from 08N-15N between 14W-23W. Scattered moderate convection
is also along the monsoon trough from 03N-12N between 30W-39W,
particularly near the 1013 mb low. Showers are within 50 nm on
either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper level ridging is noted across the western Gulf with an
upper level low centered over the central Gulf. At the surface, a
trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf along 86W from 30N-23N. An
area of isolated thunderstorms are seen within 150 nm of the
trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorms are
along the Texas coast, from 23N-29N and W of 93W. Scattered
moderate to strong thunderstorms are also noted in the Straits of
Florida moving eastward into the SE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the basin. Seas range 3 to 5 ft.

A surface trough will move across Florida today and pass over the
eastern Gulf tonight into Sat. Gentle to moderate winds and
slight seas are expected across the region, except for locally
fresh winds near the coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An area of showers is moving across the south-central Caribbean
along the Venezuela coast in addition to scattered moderate
convection in the Gulf of Honduras and the NW Caribbean. Fresh
winds are north of Colombia with moderate to fresh trades across
the rest of the basin. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with 8 ft north of
Colombia.

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and
climatological low pressure over Colombia will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean through early
next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds will persist
across the region.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough that was along the east coast of Florida at 1200 UTC has
meandered inland at 1500 UTC. Scattered moderate convection is
noted across the Bahamas and Florida, from 22N-27N between 72W-
80W. A surface trough is analyzed in the western Atlantic from
25N67W to 29N63W with showers and thunderstorms within 100 nm of
the feature. A pre-frontal trough extends into the central
Atlantic from 31N54W to 29N60W with showers along it. Another
trough is analyzed from 19N47W to 16N52W with no significant
convection associated with it. Light to gentle winds cover most of
the basin with some moderate winds in the central Atlantic from
20N-23N between 42W-59W. Seas range 3 to 7 ft.

A trough along the east coast of Florida will continue moving
westward today. A surface ridge will build north of the area,
which will support pulses of fresh to strong winds off Hispaniola
and near the entrance to the Windward Passage for the next couple
of nights. Another trough will pass westward across the waters S
of 27N Sun and Mon.

$$
AReinhart
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