[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141104
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
704 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is coming off the coast of W Africa. The wave
extends from 05N to 20N with axis near 15W. The wave is being
engulfed by the Saharan Air Layer. Scattered moderate convection
is limited to the southern portion of the wave in the vicinity of
the monsoon trough or from 04N to 18N between 10W and 24W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 05N to 20N
with axis near 27W, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 05N-12N between 24W and 34W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 05N to
22N with axis near 42W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 37W and 47W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis
near 82W, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and
tstms are S of 18N W of 81W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of W Africa near
11N16W to 08N32W to 08N50W. The ITCZ extends from 08N50W to
07N59W. For information about convection, see the tropical waves
section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Both microwave imagery at the lower levels and water vapor imagery
at the middle levels show very stable conditions in the gulf under
the influence of an upper level ridge. At the surface, a weak
pressure gradient across the region supports gentle to moderate
reurn flow W of 90W and lighter variable winds elsewhere.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the exception
of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of the
Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the ridge
will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that will
move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the western Caribbean.

Except for the Gulf of Honduras and adjacent waters between Panama
and Colombia where scattered showers and tstms are observed, the
remainder basin is under the influence of a Saharan Air Layer
event, which is likely limiting visibility E of 80W.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and lower pressure over northern Colombia will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend. Fresh to strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and Wed night. A tropical wave over the western
Caribbean will move out of the basin through tonight. Another
tropical wave farther east in the central Atlantic will approach
the eastern Caribbean by Thu night, and move across the central
Caribbean during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep layered trough aloft continue to support scattered showers
and tstms N of 26N today. This convective activity is forecast to
continue through Wed night. The remainder subtropical Atlc waters
are under the influence of a surface ridge, which maintains fair
weather conditions.

Gentle to moderate return flow will continue across the region
through this morning. Easterly gentle to moderate winds are
expected Wed evening through the weekend. Otherwise, expect fresh
to locally strong winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola
through the entire forecast period.

$$
Ramos
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