[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 141730
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave along the W coast of Africa extends from 03N-20N
along 16W, moving W at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is within 270 nm either side of the wave axis
from 06N-11N.

A tropical wave axis in the E Atlantic extends along 31W from
04N-26N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate showers are
within 120 nm of the wave axis from 05N-10N.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with an axis along 44W extends
from 10N-26N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. There is no
convection due to dry air surrounding the wave.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis
along 84W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is ahead of the wave over the Gulf of
Honduras. Similar convection is over the SW Caribbean where the
wave intersects with the monsoon trough, including over portions
of southern Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of W Africa near
12N17W to 09N24W to 08N48W. The ITCZ extends from 08N48W to
08N59W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the section above,
scattered moderate showers are seen from 05N-10N between 41W-48W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak deep-layered ridging covers most of the Gulf except for the
NE portion of the basin, where troughing in the low to mid levels
is enhancing scattered showers, mainly north of 26.5N and east of
90W. A 1017 mb surface high is near 24N84W. Light to gentle winds
are over the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico. ASCAT shows
moderate wind speeds closer to the Texas coast and in the SW
Gulf.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid week producing
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the
ridge will shift north starting mid week, ahead of a trough that
will move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
over the western Caribbean and Central America.

In the SW Caribbean, the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing
scattered moderate to strong convection south of 12N between
76W-85W. Saharan dust covers much of the remainder of the basin,
east of 82W and north of 12N. A recent ASCAT pass shows fresh and
strong winds from 10N-17.5N between 68W-82W.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and lower pressure over northern Colombia will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
weekend. Fresh winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras
tonight and Wed night. A tropical wave over the western
Caribbean will move out of the basin through tonight. Another
tropical wave farther east in the central Atlantic will approach
the eastern Caribbean by Thu night, and move across the central
Caribbean during the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough extends from Freeport Bahamas to 32N78W.
Isolated showers and tstorms are in the area east of Florida and
over the NW and central Bahamas. The trough north of the Bahamas
will persist through mid week, then shift west as high pressure
builds north the region. Light to gentle winds cover the Florida
Straits, NW and central Bamahas, and the area north of 24N and
west of 72W. Slightly farther east, an area of upper-level
diffluence and enhanced moisture is leading to scattered moderate
isolated strong convection from 26N-32N between 66W-70W. A 1023
mb surface high is near 31N58W. A surface trough is analyzed
from 24N51W to 16N56W with isolated light showers.

$$
Hagen
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