[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 140554
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
154 AM EDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending south of 24N with
axis near 26W, moving west around 10 kt. An area of enhanced
moisture is seen on TPW imagery in association with this tropical
wave. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-13N between
21W-30W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending south of
26N with axis near 39W, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 09N near the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 79W,
moving westward around 20 kt. A plume of enhanced moisture
accompanies this tropical wave, as seen on TPW imagery. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 09N-17N between 78W-83W.
Coastal areas of Nicaragua and Honduras are seen some moderate
convection tonight.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near
19N16W to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 08N59W. Aside
from the convection mentioned in the section above, no
significant convection is currently occurring.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Upper-level anticyclonic flow is over the southeastern Gulf. Mid-
level troughing extends along the eastern seaboard of the U.S.
southwestward to the NE Gulf. Mid-level troughing is also over
the SW Gulf. A surface ridge extends from the Bermuda High to the
Florida Straits to the central Gulf. The western and central Gulf
are free of any significant precipitation. Isolated to scattered
showers and tstorms are found over portions of the southeast
Gulf, and near the U.S. Gulf Coast from Louisiana to Florida
peninsula.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters into mid-week producing
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects. Looking ahead, the
ridge will shift north starting mid-week, ahead of a trough that
will move westward across Florida and into the southeast Gulf.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the Caribbean.

Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends across the Florida Straits,
contributing toward light to gentle winds in the Caribbean north
of 17N. Relatively dry air due to Saharan dust covers most of
the eastern Caribbean east of 78W. In the far SW Caribbean, the
east Pacific monsoon trough is inducing scattered moderate
convection mainly south of 18N between 79W-84W. ASCAT pass shows
fresh to strong trades across the central portion of the basin,
with moderate trades elsewhere south of 18.5N.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean through mid-week. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Tue
night. A tropical wave over the western Caribbean will move out of
the basin through mid-week. Another tropical wave farther east in
the Atlantic will approach the eastern Caribbean by mid-week and
move across the central Caribbean by late week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A strong mid- to upper-level trough located over the far eastern
U.S. just inland from the Atlantic seaboard is inducing large
scale rising motion ahead of it in the Atlantic north of 25N
between 65W-75W, where scattered moderate showers and tstorms are
observed. TPW imagery shows enhanced moisture being drawn north-
northeastward from the Florida Straits and Bahamas. Fresh S
winds are seen on an earlier ASCAT pass north of 29N between
74W-78W. The 1022 mb Bermuda High is near 30N60W. A broad
surface ridge extends southwestward from the high, south of the
weather described above, toward Cuba.

Fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters north of 27N
between 70W and 80W tonight due to the pressure gradient between
high pressure to the east and lower pressure over Florida.
Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong winds off the northern
coast of Hispaniola through the entire forecast period.

$$
Torres
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