[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 130533
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
133 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0530 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, south of 22N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted
from 02N to 17N, mainly related to the interaction of the wave
with the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, south of 24N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails
south of 10N, mainly related to the interaction of the wave with
the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 69W, south of 23N, moving
Westward at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, south of 20N, moving
Westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
the wave axis affecting Belize, the Gulf of Honduras and
northern Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 06N41W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 06N54W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate convection prevails along the monsoon trough and the
ITCZ.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1014 mb high centered near 26N93W. A surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 22N88W to 16N92W. To the east,
a surface trough extends across central Florida into the eastern
Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted in the
vicinity of the trough, affecting central and south Florida.
Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the
basin.

In the forecast, the ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during
the next several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds
and slight seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh
winds near the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

High pressure over the western Atlantic is building across the
basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail over the central
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue north of Jamaica into
Cuba and the central Bahamas associated to the mid-level trough
moving across Florida.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds
in the south-central Caribbean Mon through Wed night. Fresh to
locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Mon
night through Wed night. A tropical wave over the central
Caribbean will reach the western basin by Mon night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends across the Florida peninsula. Fresh
to strong SW winds are noted within 90 NM east of the trough.
Scattered moderate convection prevails south and southeast of
the trough, mainly north of 26N west of 71W. To the east, high
pressure is centered near 30N58W, with ridge extending SW to the
central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity
of the high pressure center. East of the high pressure center,
a cold front enters the discussion area from 32N39W to 26N44W.
No significant convection is related to this front at this time.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the
pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface
trough over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong
winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola at night through the
entire period.

$$
Torres
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