[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 122210
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
610 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2210 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W from 04N- 22N, moving
west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated convection is noted
south of 12N mainly related to the interaction of the wave with
the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 35W from 04N-22N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection prevails south of 10N, mainly related to the
interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 68W S of 23N, moving westward
at about 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted north of 18N between 64W-68W. The passage of this wave over
Puerto Rico has caused significant rainfall over the island, with
almost 3 inches reported over a few stations since last night
across the northeastern portion. 1- 1.50 inches of rainfall were
reported over most of the northern half of the island.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W S of 20N, moving westward
at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of 18N
between 83W-88W affecting Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 08N38W. The ITCZ extends from 08N38W to 05N52W. Aside
from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered
moderate isolated convection prevails south of the monsoon trough
to 05N and east of 38W to the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1017 mb high centered near 25N92W. A surface trough extends
across the Bay of Campeche from 21N92W to 18N94W. To the east, a
surface trough extends across central Florida into the eastern
Gulf. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted
south of the trough, affecting central and south Florida.
Mainly light to gentle anticyclonic winds prevail across the
basin.

The ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W
coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Fresh to locally strong winds prevail over the south- central
Caribbean. Light to gentle winds prevail over the NW Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted over the remainder of the
Caribbean basin.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean through Wed night. Fresh to locally
strong winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras Mon night
through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 33N78W, with a surface
trough extending SW to Central Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds
are noted within 90 NM east of the trough. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection prevails south and southeast of the
trough, mainly north of 25N west of 71W. To the east, high
pressure is centered near 30N58W, with ridge extending SW to the
central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds prevail in the vicinity
of the high pressure center. East of the high pressure center, a
cold front enters the discussion area from 32N38W to 27N47W. No
significant convection is related to this front at this time.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the
pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface
trough over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong
winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola at night through the
entire period.

$$
AL
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