[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121728
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
115 PM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending its axis from 04N-
24N and along 20W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of 12N mainly related to the
interaction of the wave with the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave extends its axis from 04N-24N and along 33W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
prevails south of 10N, mainly related to the interaction of the
wave with the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis along 67W and
from 02N-23N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered showers
and thunderstorms are noted north of 18N between 63W-68W. The
passage of this wave over Puerto Rico has caused significant
rainfall over the island, with almost 3 inches reported over a
few stations since last night across the northeastern portion. 1-
1.50 inches of rainfall were reported over most of the northern
half of the island.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean with axis S of 20N
and along 86W, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate
convection prevails south of 17N between 76W-86W affecting
Central America.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
14N17W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 07N57W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along
and south of the monsoon trough and east of 38W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1017 mb high centered near 25N92W. To the southwest, a thermal
trough extends across the Bay of Campeche and Yucatan Peninsula
from 23N89W to 19N91W.
To the east, a frontal boundary extends across the northern
Florida Peninsula along 28N and east of 84W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted south of the front affecting central and
south Florida. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle
anticyclonic winds across the basin.

The surface ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near
the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of
the area and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong
trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through mid week.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras through that period also. The active tropical wave over
the E Caribbean will continue moving across the central
Caribbean waters tonight and Mon, reaching the western Caribbean
by Mon night. This will enhance convection/winds/seas across the
area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A 1011 mb surface low is centered near 33N78W, with its related
front extending to 29N81W, then west across the Florida
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection prevails south of the
front, mainly north of 25N between 75W-79W. To the east, another
frontal boundary enters the discussion area from 31N44W to
30N51W. No significant convection is related to this front at
this time. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through tonight due to the
pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface
trough over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong
winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola at night through the
next few days.

$$

ERA
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