[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 121059
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 23N
with axis near 18W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
04N to 15N between the coast of Africa and 20W.

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 04N to 23N
with axis near 28W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Numerous moderate
isolated strong convection and thunderstorms are noted from 07N
to 12N between 20W and 31W.

A tropical wave is in the E Caribbean with axis near 67W, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 15N to 24N between 59W and 68W.

A tropical wave is in the western Caribbean S of 20N with axis
near 85W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are
occurring in the NW Caribbean.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 12N30W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 04N52W to
the coast of Brazil near 04N52W. For information about comvection,
see the tropical waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging preavils across most of the basin along with
moderate to fresh return flow west of 90W. A weak cold front
extending from 29N83W to SE Louisiana will dissipate near the
Tampa Bay area by this evening. Scattered showers and tstms
will be associated with this wave. Otherwise, wave heights are
generally 3 ft or less across the region.

The pressure gradient between surface ridging extending SW from
the Atlantic and lower pressure along Mexico will support moderate
to fresh return flow west of 90W during the entire period. Winds
will be enhanced at night along the Yucatan peninsula coast due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A tropical wave in the E Caribbean is generating scattered showers
and tstms. This shower activity wil continue today. A second
tropical wave is traversing Honduras, however it lacks significant
convection. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are in
the SW Caribbean associated with the east Pacific monsoon trough.

The gradient between Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to
the northern Caribbean waters and lower pressure over northern
Colombia will maintain fresh to strong winds in the south-central
and southwest basin through Thu. A tropical wave over the E
Caribbean will move to the central waters Sun evening and across
the western basin through Tue night. The wave will support
scattered showers and will enhance the winds and seas. Otherwise,
fresh winds in the Gulf of Honduras will pulse to strong Tue and
Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Scattered showers and tstms are occuring over the northern Bahamas
and adjacent northern waters ahead of a frontal boundary that will
support enhanced winds and sea through Tue.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through Mon night due to the
pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower
pressure along the southeast CONUS. Otherwise, fresh winds off the
northern Hispaniola coast will pulse to strong at night through
the entire period.

$$
Ramos
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