[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 120605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Jul 12 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A new tropical wave has moved off the coast of Africa. This
wave is along 18W, south of 23N. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 17N between the coast of Africa to 24W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 27W, south of 23N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted from 06N to 10N between 24W and 33W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W south of 23N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted along the wave axis from the U.S. Virgin Islands south
to the ABC Islands.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
noted in the vicinity of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 08N40W. The ITCZ extends from 08N40W to the coast of
Brazil near 04N51W. Aside from the convection associated to the
tropical waves, scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen in
the vicinity of the boundaries and near the coast of Brazil.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1015 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the northwest
Gulf near 26N93W. A surface trough is observed from 22N89W to
18N91W, with scattered showers in the vicinity of the trough
axis. To the east, a mid-level trough, with plenty of moisture
in the region, is enhancing scattered showers and thunderstorms
from the eastern Gulf across the FL peninsula. Gentle to moderate
winds prevail over the northeastern Gulf with light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Wave heights are generally 3 ft or less across
the region.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days producing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the western
coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the south-central
Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean.
Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south-central Caribbean,
2-4 ft over the northwest Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere. In
the latest TPW, most of the moisture remains concentrated to the
south of 14N in the south-central Caribbean. The Pacific monsoon
trough extends from N of Colombia westward to Costa Rica. An area
of scattered to moderate convection is noted south of 14N between
74W to 83W.

Atlantic high pressure extending a ridge to the northern
Caribbean along with lower pressure over northern Colombia and
the passage of a tropical wave will maintain fresh to strong winds
E of 80W through Thu. Fresh winds will pulse to strong at night
in the Gulf of Honduras most of the forecast period.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A mid-level trough extends over and just east of Florida. This is
Enhancing scattered moderate convection over the waters north of
23N to 31N and west of 72W. A deep-layer ridge prevails elsewhere
across the waters N of 20N, with a surface ridge axis extending
from 1024 mb high pressure near 32N52W to the central Bahamas.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure
troughing over the southeastern U.S. is supporting fresh to
strong southerly winds N of 27N between 72W and 76W, where seas
are building to near 8 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the
vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail, with peak seas around 7-8 ft.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N and west of 70W through Mon, as the pressure
gradient tightens between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower
pressure over the SE CONUS. Winds and seas will diminish early
next week as high pressure builds across the northern waters.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist around the
southern periphery of the ridge.

$$
Torres
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