[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 112222
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
622 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 26W from 03N- 22N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
06N to 10N between 25W and 30W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 62W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers are noted along the wave
axis mainly N of 15N.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
12N between 78W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
18N16W to 15N20W to 09N40W. The ITCZ extends from 09N40W to
04N51W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N
to 15N and E of 25W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 07N to 10N betwen 30W and 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1019 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the northwest
Gulf near 28N93W, with its ridge axis extending to the Straits of
Florida. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the northeastern
Gulf with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Wave heights are
generally 3 ft or less across the region.

A ridge will dominate the Gulf waters during the next several
days producing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas with the
exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W coast of
the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Fresh to strong trade winds prevail across the south- central
Caribbean. Gentle winds prevail over the western Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 7-10
ft range over the south- central Caribbean, 2-4 ft over the
northwest Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere.

The Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will maintain
fresh to strong winds across the south-central Caribbean most of
the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will
prevail. The passages of tropical waves will also enhance the
trade wind flow.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A low to mid level trough extends over and just east of Florida.
Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted over the
waters north of 23N and west of 72W. A deep- layer ridge prevails
elsewhere across the waters N of 20N, with a surface ridge axis
extending from 1021 mb high pressure near 31N54W to the central
Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this ridge and low pressure
troughing over the southeastern U.S. is supporting fresh to strong
southerly winds N of 26N between 72W and 76W, where seas are
building to near 8 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail in the
vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade
winds prevail, with peak seas around 7-8 ft.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N and west of 70W through Mon, as the pressure gradient
tightens between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface trough
extending from 31N76W to the NW Bahamas. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high pressure
builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trade winds will persist around the southern periphery of the
ridge.

$$
AL
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