[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111722
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
100 PM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 24W from 03N-
22N, is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 09N to 13N and E of 27W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends its axis from 21N53W to
08N59W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted
along the wave axis mainly N of 15N.

A Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 80W and S of 20N, is
moving westward at 10-15 kt. The monsoon trough extends across
Panama along 10N. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
12N between 74W-84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
18N16W to 10N36W. The ITCZ extends from 10N36W to 07N55W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N and E
of 27W, interacting with the tropical wave along 24W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1017 mb high pressure center is analyzed northwest Gulf near
26N95W, with its ridge axis extending to the Straits of Florida.
Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are depicted in
scatterometer data across the basin. Wave heights are generally
3 ft or less across the region.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days producing gentle to moderate winds and slight seas
with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near the W
coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the waters S of 18N,
as noted in latest scatterometer data. Some fresh to strong
winds are pulsing over the Gulf of Honduras. Mainly gentle winds
are noted south of Cuba and extending over the NW Caribbean.

The Atlantic high pressure combined with the Colombian low will
maintain pulsing fresh to strong winds across the south-
central Caribbean most of the forecast period. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail. As the tropical
waves move across the basin, winds and seas will be enhanced.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from 31N76W to 26N77W. Scattered
moderate convection prevails along and east of the trough
between 73W-77W. A deep-layer ridge prevails across the waters N
of 20N, with a surface ridge axis extending from 1024 mb high
pressure near 31N54W to the central Bahamas. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and low pressure troughing over the
southeastern U.S. is supporting fresh southerly winds N of 26N
between 72W and 78W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail south of the ridge across the central Atlantic, with
peak seas around 7-8 ft.

Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters north
of 27N and west of 70W later today, as the pressure gradient
tightens between the Bermuda-Azores High and a surface trough
extending from 31N74W to the NW Bahamas. Winds and seas will
diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high pressure
builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh
trade winds will persist around the southern periphery of the
ridge.

$$

ERA
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