[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 111005
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
605 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0950 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 20W/21W south of 22N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered strong convection is noted
from 09N to 13N within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave extends from 21N53W to 08N59W,
moving westward at 15-20 kt. No significant convection is
associated with the wave at this time.

A Caribbean tropical wave is along 79W south of 20N, moving
westward at 15 kt. The monsoon trough extends across Panama along
08N/09N. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted
S of 11N between 76W and 84W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Mauritania near
18N16W to 10N32W to 10N38W. The ITCZ extends from 06N37W to 06N56W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 12N E of
19W, and within 90 nm S of the monsoon trough W of 35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed over the central Gulf
near 27N89W this morning, with its ridge axis extending to the
Straits of Florida. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds are
noted in overnight scatterometer data across much of the Gulf. A
surface trough offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula is producing some
locally fresh winds over the SW Gulf, where seas are running 3-5
ft. Elsewhere, wave heights are generally 3 ft or less across the
region.

High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward and
weaken this weekend as a low pressure trough develops over
Florida. The trough will lift northeastward early next week, which
will allow high pressure to rebuild across the eastern Gulf
through midweek. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will
prevail across the region for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the waters S of 18N
per overnight scatterometer data. Strong to near gale-force winds
are noted near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela,
with 8-11 ft seas associated with the strongest winds. Some fresh
to locally strong winds are also occurring over the Gulf of
Honduras. Mainly gentle winds are noted south of Cuba over the NW
Caribbean.

A tropical wave near 79W will cross the western Caribbean through
late Sun. Strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean
will briefly diminish Sun into Mon, then strengthen again Mon
night through midweek as another tropical wave crosses the region.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist through
this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A deep-layer ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N, with a
surface ridge axis extending from 1024 mb high pressure near
33N58W to the central Bahamas. The pressure gradient between this
ridge and low pressure troughing over the southeastern U.S. is
supporting fresh southerly winds N of 26N between 72W and 78W.
Some isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted offshore of the
northern Bahamas. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds
prevail south of the ridge across the central Atlantic, with peak
seas around 7-8 ft.

Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters north of 27N and
west of 70W this weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens
between a Bermuda high pressure ridge and a low pressure trough
over Florida. Winds and seas will diminish early next week as the
trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern
waters. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist
south of the ridge for the next several days.

$$
B Reinhart
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