[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 110614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
214 AM EDT Sat Jul 11 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Tropical Storm Fay, at 11/0600 UTC, is near 41.5N
75.0W, or about 43 nm/80 km to the north of New York City. T.S.
FAY is moving northward, or 05 degrees, 15 knots. The minimum
central pressure is 1001 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
35 knots with gusts to 45 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong is within 30 nm to 45 nm on either side of the
line that runs from 40N70W to 38N72W to 36N72W to 33N75W to 32N74W
to the Nw Bahamas. The following are hazards affecting land :

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 1 to 3 inches of rain, with
isolated maxima of 4 inches along and near its track from eastern
Pennsylvania, northern New Jersey across southeastern New York,
and parts of New England. It is possible that this rain may result
in flash flooding and urban flooding, in areas with poor drainage
where the heaviest rain amounts occur. Widespread river flooding
is not expected at this time. Rapid rises on small streams and
isolated minor flooding is possible.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 22N16W 15N20W 07N20W,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is from 09N to 12N between 20W and 26W. Widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 06N to 11N from 20W
eastward.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 21N52W 12N56W, to
southern Guyana, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from
08N to 13N between 54W and 62W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 77W/78W, from 20N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. The monsoon trough is
along 08N/09N from 74W in Colombia beyond western Panama and
southern Costa Rica, into the eastern Pacific Ocean. An inverted
trough, from 250 mb to 700 mb, extends from Panama, northeastward,
beyond the eastern sections of the Dominican Republic.
Precipitation: widely scattered scattered moderate to strong, in
clusters, is from 04N in Colombia to 12N along the coast of
Nicaragua, from 72W at the border of Colombia and Venezuela,
westward.

A tropical wave is along 93W/94W, from 18N southward, from the
Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico southward, moving
westward 10 to 15 knots. A 700 mb inverted trough is in the area
of the Isthmus of Tehuantepec. A surface trough is about 75 nm to
the west of the Yucatan Peninsula, between 90W and 93W.
Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated
strong is from 22N southward between 90W and 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 18N16W, to 14N27W, to 09N33W, and 11N38W. The ITCZ is
along 06N/07N between 37W and 56W at the coast of Suriname.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 09N to 12N
between 20W and 26W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong
is from 06N to 11N from 20W eastward. Isolated moderate to locally
strong is from the coast to 08N between 51W and 58W near South
America. Isolated moderate is elsewhere from 01N to 14N from 50W
eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the east central
Gulf of Mexico. An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is
in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near the western coast of
the Yucatan Peninsula.

A surface ridge extends from Cuba to a 1018 mb high pressure
center that is near 27N91W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers
most of the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will shift westward
this weekend, as a trough develops in Florida. The trough will
move northeastward early next week. High pressure will build
again, in the eastern Gulf of Mexico through midweek. Gentle to
moderate winds and slight seas will prevail across the region for
the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave near 78W will cross the western Caribbean Sea
through late Sunday. Strong trade winds in the south central
Caribbean Sea will pulse to near gale-force speeds tonight, near
the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, behind the 78W
tropical wave. The wind speeds and the sea heights will diminish
briefly from Sunday through Monday, and then increase from Tuesday
into Wednesday, as another tropical wave crosses the region.
Moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across much of the area
through this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The upper level inverted trough, that extends from Panama,
northeastward, beyond the eastern sections of Dominican Republic,
continues northeastward in the Atlantic Ocean, to 32N62W. broken
to overcast multilayered clouds and possible rainshowers are
within 210 nm on either side of the upper level inverted trough.

Southerly winds will strengthen in the waters that are to the N
of 27N and to the W of 70W during this weekend. The surface
pressure gradient will tighten, between a Bermuda ridge and a
trough in Florida. The wind speeds and the sea heights will
diminish early next week, as the trough weakens and high pressure
builds across the northern waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds
will prevail to the south of the ridge, with locally strong winds
pulsing to the north of Hispaniola each evening through Sunday
night.

$$
mt
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