[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 102216
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
616 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2215 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 39.5N 74.3W at 10/2100 UTC
or 10 nm NNE of Atlantic City New Jersey moving N at 12 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Tropical storm conditions
will continue to spread northward across portions of the mid-
Atlantic and northeast coast tonight.

Please read the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 18W south of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted from 07N to
11N E of 20W to the coast of Africa.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 55W, south of 18N, moving
westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are noted from 09N to
11N between 53W and 58W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W south of 20N, moving
westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along
and west of the wave axis mainly south of 10N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 13N35W to 09N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09N42W to
08N54W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section
above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from
05N to 10N between 20W and 30W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 03N to 10N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1018 mb high pressure center is analyzed across the north-
central Gulf near 27N91W. Light to gentle winds prevail near the
high, with gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow elsewhere across
the basin.

High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward this
weekend as a low pressure trough develops over Florida. The trough
will lift northeastward early next week, which will allow high
pressure to rebuild across the eastern and central Gulf. Expect
gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to prevail across much of
the region for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient associated with a surface high pressure
ridge over the central and western Atlantic, and climatological
low pressure over Colombia is supporting fresh to strong winds
over the south- central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds
prevail across the western Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere.

Strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean will pulse to
near gale- force speeds tonight near the coast of Colombia and in
the Gulf of Venezuela. Winds and seas will briefly diminish Sun
through Mon, then begin to increase on Tue as a tropical wave
crosses the region. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will
persist across much of the area through this weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

A surface trough extends from 31N72W to the NW Bahamas. The trough
is helping for scattered showers and thunderstorms over much the
Atlantic waters west of 70W. Fresh to strong winds prevail east of
the trough to 70W. Light to gentle winds prevail west of the
trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere west of 65W.
A surface ridge axis prevails east of the surface trough. Light to
gentle winds are found north of the ridge axis, with gentle to
moderate winds south of the ridge axis to 20N. South of 20N, fresh
tradewinds prevail.

Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters north of 27N and
west of 70W this weekend, as the pressure gradient tightens
between a Bermuda high pressure ridge extending to the central
Bahamas and a low pressure trough over Florida. Winds and seas
will diminish early next week as the trough weakens and high
pressure builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh trade winds will continue south of the ridge, with locally
strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola each evening.

$$
AL
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