[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 101741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
141 PM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered well north of the area near 38.4N
74.5W at 10/1500 UTC, or 35 nm SSE of Cape May New Jersey,
moving N at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb.
Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. A
northward to north- northeastward motion at a faster forward
speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast
track, the center of Fay is forecast to move near the mid-
Atlantic coast this afternoon and evening and move inland over
the mid-Atlantic and northeast United States tonight and
Saturday.

Please read the latest Fay NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public
Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic tropical wave with axis from 21N46W to 03N54W, is
moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted with this
wave mainly south of 10N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave with axis along 74W south of
20N,is moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted along and west of the wave axis mainly south of 10N,
related to the interaction with the EPAC's monsoon trough.

A tropical wave extends across the Yucatan Peninsula and EPAC
waters, with axis extending along 90W and south of 20N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 10N-15N between 90W-96W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 11N28W to 12N38W. The ITCZ extends from 12N38W to
13N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm S
of the monsoon trough E of 28W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1078 mb high pressure center is analyzed across the east-
central Gulf near 27N90W. Latest scatterometer data depicts
light winds near the high, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic
flow elsewhere over the basin. Some locally fresh winds are
noted with a surface trough over the SW Gulf near the Yucatan
Peninsula. Seas in this region are likely 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, an
earlier altimeter pass across the central Gulf indicated 1-3 ft
seas over these waters.

High pressure over the central Gulf will shift westward this
weekend as a low pressure trough develops over Florida. The
trough will lift northeastward early next week, which will allow
high pressure to rebuild across the eastern and central Gulf.
Expect gentle to moderate winds and slight seas to prevail
across much of the region for the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

The pressure gradient associated with a dominant surface high
pressure ridge over the central and western Atlantic is
supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean.
Latest scatterometer data depicts small areas of near gale-force
winds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela in
the vicinity of the tropical wave is currently moving across the
area. Wave heights are 8-12 ft within these enhanced trades over
the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate trades prevail
across the remaining waters.

The tropical wave will move across the central and western
Caribbean through Sun. Behind this wave, strong trade winds over
the south-central Caribbean will pulse to near gale-force speeds
tonight near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela.
Winds and seas will briefly diminish Sun through Mon, then begin
to increase on Tue as another tropical wave crosses the region.
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds will persist across
much of the area through this weekend. A tropical wave over the
Gulf of Honduras will continue moving across Central America
through tonight.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave
moving across the basin.

A low to mid-level trough off the southeastern U.S. coast is
supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the west
Atlantic west of 70W. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N78W
to 27N77W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh
southerly flow across the offshore waters N of 24N between 70W
and 75W. Light to gentle winds persist near the surface ridge
axis that extends from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas. South
of this ridge, moderate to fresh trade winds continue across the
central Atlantic. Stronger winds are occurring within the
enhanced pressure gradient near the west African coast.

Southerly winds will strengthen over the waters north
of 27N and west of 70W this weekend, as the pressure gradient
tightens between a Bermuda high pressure ridge extending to the
central Bahamas and a low pressure trough over Florida. Winds
and seas will diminish early next week as the trough weakens and
high pressure builds across the northern waters. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds will continue south of the ridge,
with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola each
evening.

$$

ERA
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