[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

Fri Jul 10 00:50:14 CDT 2020

AXNT20 KNHC 100550
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
149 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Fay is centered near 36.7N 74.9W at 10/0600 UTC
or 90 nm S of Ocean City Maryland moving N at 7 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous moderate to strong is within 150 nm of the center in the
NE quadrant. The following are hazards:

RAINFALL: Fay is expected to produce 3 to 5 inches of rain, with
isolated maxima of 8 inches along and near the track of Fay,
across the mid-Atlantic states into southeast New York and
southern New England. These rains may result in flash flooding
where the heaviest amounts occur.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to reach the coast,
first within the warning area on Friday, and spread northward
through the warning area Friday night.

STORM SURGE: Minor flooding is possible along the coast for parts
of the Tropical Storm Warning area.

TORNADOES: Isolated tornadoes are possible on Friday in parts of
New Jersey, southeastern New York, and southern New England.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml and the
Forecast/Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20N44W 11N48W 02N51W, at
the coast of NE Brazil, moving westward 10 knots. Precipitation:
isolated to widely scattered moderate and locally strong is from
10N to 16N between 42W and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 71W/72W, from 20N in the
NW part of the Dominican Republic, southward, moving westward 10
to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is just off the coast of SW Haiti.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 85W/86W, from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea from 78W westward.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Guinea-
Bissau near 12N16W, to 10N20W, and to 10N32W. The ITCZ continues
from 10N32W to 10N46W, and from 09N50W, to 07N56W, to 10N60W.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to numerous strong is within 150
nm to the south of the ITCZ between 36W and 40W. Scattered
moderate to strong is within 60 nm to 90 nm of the coast of Africa
from 06N to 07N, and from 10N to 12N. Isolated moderate to
locally strong is elsewhere from 10N southward from 60W eastward.
Widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong is
inland, from the coast southward between 55W and 64W, in parts of
Brazil, Suriname, Guyana, and Venezuela.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level inverted trough extends from the western part of
the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, northward to 23N in
Mexico, and then northeastward into the east central part of the
Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation: scattered to numerous moderate to
strong from 15N in the eastern Pacific Ocean to 19N between 93W
and 96W.

A surface trough is within 30 nm to 60 nm off the western coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, between 90W and 93W. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 75 nm on either
side of the surface trough.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is on top of south
Florida. A separate upper level anticyclonic circulation center
also is in the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level
anticyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, with
these two features.

A 1016 mb high pressure center is near 27N88W. Surface
anticyclonic wind flow covers most of the rest of the Gulf of
Mexico.

High pressure in the central Gulf of Mexico will shift westward
during the upcoming weekend, as a trough develops in the SE U.S.A.
The trough will move NE early next week. High pressure will
rebuild in the eastern and central sections of the Gulf of Mexico.
Expect gentle to moderate winds, and slight seas, to prevail
through the next several days.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The GFS model shows that an upper level inverted trough extends
from Barranquilla in Colombia about 400 nm to the WNW into the
Caribbean Sea. A second upper level inverted trough, in the GFS
model forecast for 250 mb, extends from 25N65W in the Atlantic
Ocean, into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Precipitation:
rainshowers are possible from 20N southward between 60W and 68W.

An upper level anticyclonic circulation center is in the NW
corner of the Caribbean Sea. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the NW corner of the area.

The monsoon trough is along 08N/10N between 74W in Colombia, and
beyond Costa Rica. Precipitation: isolated moderate from 12N
southward from 76W westward.

Fresh trade winds will persist across much of the Caribbean Sea
through Saturday. Strong winds will be in the south central
Caribbean Sea. The wind speeds are expected to pulse to near gale-
force speeds near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela. The winds and the seas in the south central Caribbean
Sea will diminish briefly on Sunday and Monday, and then increase
again by midweek in the wake of a tropical wave that will be
crossing the region. A current 85W tropical wave, that is being
accompanied by scattered rainshowers and thunderstorms, will
continue moving across Central America through Friday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The northeasternmost point of a surface trough is about 300 nm to
the WSW of T.S. FAY. The surface trough passes through the waters
that are between the NW Bahamas and south Florida, to 24N80W in
the Straits of Florida. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is between the trough and Florida from 26N to 30N. Broad
upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N
northward from 72W westward. Broad upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 30N southward from 69W
westward, with the Florida upper level anticyclonic circulation
center. Precipitation: warming cloud top temperatures, and
weakening/dissipating precipitation, with some remaining
rainshowers and thunderstorms, are elsewhere from 20N northward
from 64W westward.

Southerly winds will strengthen in the waters that are to the N
of 27N and W of 70W this weekend. The surface pressure gradient
will tighten, between a Bermuda ridge that will be extending to
the central Bahamas, and a trough that will be in the SE U.S.A.
The winds and the seas will diminish early next week, as the
trough weakens and high pressure builds across the northern
waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail south of the
ridge, with locally strong winds pulsing north of Hispaniola each
evening.

$$
mt
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