[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 131052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
652 AM EDT Mon Jul 13 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic extending from 03N to 23N
with axis near 25W, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 07N to 14N between the coast of Africa
and 28W.

A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 04N to
24N with axis near 37W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 28W and 40W.

A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with axis near 70W,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
are noted N of 15N between 67W and 71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is analyzed from the coast of Africa near
19N16W to 08N30W to 08N43W. The ITCZ extends from 08N43W to
07N58W. For information about convection please see the tropical
waves section.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure prevails across the basin, anchored by a
1015 mb high centered near 25N91W. Current conditions allow for
light variable winds, except for moderate to fresh return flow W
of 95W and moderate W winds in the NE basin N of 28N.

Surface ridging will dominate the Gulf waters during the next
several days producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight
seas with the exception of moderate to locally fresh winds near
the W coast of the Yucatan peninsula due to local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

High pressure over the western Atlantic is building across the
basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades prevail over the central
and E Caribbean.

The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge N of the area
and the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds in
the south-central Caribbean through Fri. Fresh to locally strong
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. A
tropical wave over the central Caribbean will reach the western
basin by Mon night and move out of the basin by early Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected over the waters
north of 27N between 70W and 80W through Mon night due to the
pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High and lower
pressure over Florida. Otherwise, expect fresh to locally strong
winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through the entire
forecast period.

$$
Ramos
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