[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 042314
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2313 UTC Sat Jul 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five is centered near 31.8N 67.3W at 04/2100
UTC or 130 nm WSW of Bermuda moving ENE at 14 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass
indicted winds to barely 25 kt just within the discussion area
north of 30N near 70W, with seas estimated to be 7 to 9 ft.
Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is off the coast of Senegal along
16W south of 18N. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
08N-10N east of 16W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 29W from 20N southward,
moving west at 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 47W/48W from 20N
southward, moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-09N between 50W and
55W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 57W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. A few showers are possible between this
wave axis and the Leeward Islands, but otherwise no significant
convection is noted.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 87W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10-15 knots, centered over Honduras and Nicaragua.
No signifcant convection is noted near this wave axis.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N15W to 10N20W to 10N30W. The ITCZ
continues from 10N30W to 09N48W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted from 08N-10N east of 16W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N-09N between 50W and
55W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extending from the Florida Panhandle
southwestward into the central Gulf may be supporting a few
showers over the southeast Gulf. At the surface, 1015 mb high
pressure is centered near 25N91W. Buoy observations and
satellite data indicate generally light to gentle breezes across
the Gulf, with 2to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, the high pressure will persist along 25N-26N
through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will
develop over the waters west of 90W Sun night and persist
through the middle of next week as high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper low is centered over Hispaniola with an upper trough
extending to northeast Colombia. This is supporting a few trade
wind showers across the Leeward and Windward Islands into the
eastern Caribbean. Trade convergence is also supporting the usual
clusters of thunderstorms over the far southwest Caribbean, off
western Panama, Costa Rica, and southeast Nicaragua. Elsewhere,
northerly flow aloft on the west side of the upper trough is keep
a dry and subsidence pattern in place with no significant shower
or thunderstorm activity noted over the Caribbean Sea. The
subtropical ridge axis is displaced southward through the central
Bahamas. This is supporting fresh to strong trade winds off the
coast of Colombia, with seas 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere moderate to
fresh trade winds persist south of 18N, with 4 to 6 ft seas.
Light to gentle breezes are noted over the northwest Caribbean,
with 2 to 4 ft seas.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
Atlantic along 25N-26N into the Bahamas will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night
and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of
fresh winds through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five.

A surface ridge extends from 1022 mb high pressure near the
Azores Islands southwestward to the central Bahamas. Aside from
the area of winds and seas described above in this discussion,
the ridge is maintaining generally gentle to moderate flow and 3
to 5 ft seas across the Atlantic waters west of 55W. A few
showers and thunderstorms are noted north of the northern
Bahamas from 27N to 29N between 70W and 75W, along a stationary
trough extending along 28N west of 70W. No significant shower or
thunderstorm activity is noted elsewhere over the western
Atlantic. For the forecast, the ridge will persist along 25N
through Sun, then gradually lift northward early next week. The
weak trough will linger off the northern Florida coast through
Sun, then dissipate by Mon.

Farther east, fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas persist
off the northwest coast of Africa, mainly north of 15N and east
of 25W, between the high pressure over the Azores and lower
pressure over the Sahara. Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly
flow persist east of 55W with 6 to 8 ft seas in NW swell. No
significant convection persists north of 20N.

$$

Christensen
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