[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041737
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
137 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 1500 UTC, newly formed Tropical Depression Five was located in
the western Atlantic near 31.1N 68.7W, or about 210 nm WSW of
Bermuda, with a central pressure of 1009 mb. The maximum sustained
winds were 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt and is moving ENE at 15
knots. Seas are up to 8 ft. Scattered moderate convection is
within 200 nm of the eastern semicircle. Tropical Depression Five
will begin to have a faster east-northeastward motion by tonight,
followed by further acceleration on Sunday. On the forecast track,
the center of the depression will move near or just northwest and
north of Bermuda tonight and early Sunday. Seas are expected to
build to 10-11 ft. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC or the website
hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 27W from 20N southward,
moving west at 15 to 20 knots. No significant convection is
associated with this wave at this time.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 45W from 17N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Isolated showers are noted within 180 nm
of the wave from 06N-12N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W from 20N southward,
moving west at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection associated
with this wave is near the ITCZ from 05N-09N between 50W-57W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 86W from 19N southward,
moving west at 10-15 knots, centered over Honduras and Nicaragua.
Showers are noted in the Gulf of Honduras with scattered
convection moving across eastern Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W to 05N24W. The ITCZ continues from
05N24W to 06N27W, then continues from 06N28W to 08N45W. The last
portion of the ITCZ continues from 08N46W to the coast of French
Guiana near 05N53W. Outside of convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 06N-13N, E of 19N to the coast of Africa. Scattered
moderate convection is within 200 nm of the ITCZ between 27W-57W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle
southwestward into the central Gulf. Upper level anticyclonic wind
flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward. A 1015 mb high
is located near 24N88W and extends a weak and narrow ridge
eastward through the Straits of Florida. A 1013 mb low is located
off the western Florida Panhandle coast near 30N87W with a trough
extending eastward to the coast of Florida. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the NE Gulf, N of 26N between 83W-93W.
Isolated thunderstorms are in the south- central Bay of Campeche
in addition to the Straits of Florida. Light to gentle winds are
noted across the basin. Seas range from 1-3 ft.

High pressure will persist along 25N-26N through the middle of
next week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters
W of 90W Sun night through the middle of next week as high
pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Saharan air generally dominates the Caribbean east of the
tropical wave along 84W, with only widely scattered showers moving
across the Lesser Antilles. Numerous strong convection in the SW
Caribbean is being enhanced by the monsoon trough. These strong
storms are off the coasts of Costa Rica and Panama, south of 12N
between 77W- 83W. Strong storms are also in the eastern Pacific.
Fresh to strong trades are in the central Caribbean with light to
moderate trades elsewhere. Seas range 3 to 6 ft with upwards of 10
ft north of Colombia.

A high pressure ridge across the western Atlantic along 25N will
maintain fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central
Caribbean through the middle of next week. Locally strong winds
are expected Sun night and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras,
followed by pulses of fresh winds through the middle of next week.
Winds and seas will slightly increase over the Tropical N
Atlantic waters Mon and Tue with the passage of a tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five.

A mid-level trough continues to linger across the western
Atlantic. At 1500 UTC, a 1014 mb surface low was located near
29N78W with a trough extending along it from 29N75W to the coast
of Florida near 30N81W. Scattered moderate convection covers the
western Atlantic, N of 24N between 64W-81W, including the Bahamas.
Surface ridging dominates the rest of the Atlantic. Fresh to near
gale winds are along the Canary Islands, with occasional gale
winds. See Meteo France for more information on this. Seas range
3-6 ft in the western Atlantic, upwards of 8 ft near TD Five. The
rest of the Atlantic has seas ranging from 4-8 ft.

Expect strong to near gale-force winds and building seas N of 29N
and E of 70W through tonight. Elsewhere, a high pressure ridge
will persist along 25N through Sun, then gradually lift northward
through early next week. A dissipating stationary front along 30N
will linger as a trough over the northern waters through Sun
night.

$$
AReinhart
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