[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 041027
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
627 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0910 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1011 mb low pressure center is near 30.5N71W moving ENE near 20
kt. A cluster of strong thunderstorms extended nearly 150 nm to
the S of this low earlier tonight but has since diminished, while
new moderate convection has recently flared up within 120 nm SE of
the center. Overnight scatterometer data showed W to SW winds of
20-30 kt across the south semicircle of the low, where seas were
likely 6-8 ft. It is possible that a tropical depression may form
from this system today while the system eastward near 15 mph. The
environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for
significant development to occur, by Sunday night. Interests in
Bermuda should monitor the progress of this system. The system has
a medium chance for development into a tropical cyclone during
the next 48 hours.

...GALE-FORCE WINDS...

Gale-force winds are present in the METEO-FRANCE areas of
CANARIAS. Please refer to the webpage: www.gmdss.org/II.html, and
the link for the HIGH SEAS WARNING, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 25W from 19N southward,
moving west at 15 to 20 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
along the monsoon trough from 03N to 08N between 20W and 28W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 15N
southward moving west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is
behind the wave from 03N to 12N between 37W and 43W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 53W/54W, from 17N
southward, moving west at 15-20 knots. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection associated with this wave is near the ITCZ from
05N to 09N betwen 49W and 55W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 84W, from 19N southward,
moving west at 20 knots. The wave has moved into Nicaragua and
Costa Rica and under upper level anticyclonic wind flow, which is
aiding persistent convection there. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection extends from the Gulf of Honduras southeastward
to NW Colombia and the adjacent waters of the SW Caribbean and
eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Senegal near 12N16W to 11N32W. The ITCZ continues from 11N32W to
10N36W to 05N53W. Outside of convection associated with the
tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 05N to 10N E of 19N to the coast of Africa.

GULF OF MEXICO...

An upper level trough extends from the Florida Panhandle
southwestward to NE Mexico. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
covers the Gulf of Mexico from 26N southward.

A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 24N91W and extends and weak
and narrow ridge eastward through the Straits of Florida.
Scattered moderate convection dots the northern waters N of 28N
between 85W and 97W.

High pressure will persist along 25N through early next week.
Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters W of 90W
Sun night through the middle of next week, as high pressure shifts
eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Saharan air generally dominates the Caribbean east of the tropical
wave along 84W, with only widely scattered showers moving across
the Lesser Antilles this morning.

The ridge N across the western Atlantic Ocean will maintain fresh
to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night
in the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of fresh winds through
early next week. The winds and the seas will increase in the
Tropical N Atlantic Ocean on Mon and Tue, with the passage of a
tropical wave.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

As mentioned above, a 1011 mb low pressure center is near 30.5N71W
moving ENE near 20 kt. W to SW winds 20-30 kt are occurring within
150 nm to the south of this low, accompanied by moderate
convection. The low will move ENE out of the area by this evening.

A stationary front extends from from W of the low along 30N through
NE Florida, and beyond south central Georgia. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection has developed south of the boundary
from 26.5N to 29.5N between 75W and 79W and is expected to shift
eastward this morning.

A ridge will persist roughly along 25N-26N through Sun, then
gradually move northward through early next week. The 1011 mb low
pressure center will move eastward across the waters N of 27N
through Sat night, bringing fresh winds and scattered showers and
thunderstorms. A cold front will stall and weaken near 31N tonight
into Sat. Moderate to fresh tradewinds will dominate the tropics
south of the ridge to the Lesser Antilles.

$$
Stripling
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