[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 050544
TWDAT

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0515 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Depression Five is centered near 32.5N 66.3W at 05/0300
UTC or 78 nm W of Bermuda, moving NE at 16 kt. Estimated
minimum central pressure is 1008 mb. Maximum sustained wind
speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. An earlier scatterometer pass
indicted winds to barely 25 kt just within the discussion area
north of 30N near 70W, with seas estimated to range between 7-9
ft. Little change in strength is forecast during the next 48
hours, although the system still could become a tropical storm
during that time.

Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT5.shtml and Forecast/
Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT5.shtml for
more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is off the coast of Senegal
with axis along 19W from 03N-19N, moving west at 10 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N-11N east of 19W.

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 35W from 02N-
21N, is moving west at 15-20 kt.  This wave is noted in IR
imagery and wave diagnostics, but no significant convection
prevails within this wave at this time.

A central Atlantic tropical wave with axis along 51W from 01N-
21N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted in
the southern portion of the wave mainly south of 10N.

A tropical wave is entering the eastern Caribbean with axis
along the Lesser Antilles near 61W from 04N-22N, moving west at
10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis.

A Central America/EPAC tropical wave extends along 89W and south
of 18N, is moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
convection is noted in the wave's environment mainly south of
20N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through coastal Africa near 18N16W to
10N28W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 09N36W to 09N49W. Scattered
showers prevail south of the monsoon trough and east of 20W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-12N between 39W-
49W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface ridge prevails across the basin, anchored by a weak 1013
mb high centered near 25N94W. A surface trough is noted over the
north/central Gulf extending from 29N90W to 27N92W. Scattered
showers prevail along the trough. Scatterometer data depicts
light to gentle anticyclonic winds across most of the basin.
Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted over the Bay of
Campeche, while gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail over
the northwest Gulf.

High pressure will persist along 24N-25N through the middle of
the week. Moderate to fresh SE flow will develop over the waters
W of 90W on Sun night and persist through the middle of next
week as high pressure shifts eastward.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
affecting the basin.

An active monsoon trough combined with a tropical wave are
supporting scattered moderate convection across Central America
and northern Colombia, affecting the waters south of 14N between
75W-83W. Scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh easterly
winds prevailing across the central and southern portions of the
basin, while gentle winds prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western
Atlantic along 25N-26N into the Bahamas will maintain fresh to
strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through the
middle of next week. Locally strong winds are expected Sun night
and Mon night across the Gulf of Honduras, followed by pulses of
fresh winds through Wed night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN

See the Special Features section for information on T.D. Five
and the tropical waves moving across the basin.

A 1013 mb surface low is centered near 29N76W. A surface trough
extends from the low to 27N79W. Scattered moderate convection
prevails along the trough. A surface ridge extends across the
remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near
37N33W.

For the forecast, the ridge will persist along 25N through Sun,
then gradually lift northward early next week. The weak
low/trough will linger off the northern Florida coast through
Sun, then dissipate by Mon.

Farther east, fresh to strong NW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas persist
off the northwest coast of Africa, mainly north of 15N and east
of 25W, between the high pressure over the Azores and lower
pressure over the Sahara. Elsewhere moderate to fresh easterly
flow persist east of 55W with 6 to 8 ft seas in NW swell. No
significant convection persists north of 20N.

$$

ERA
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