[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 070528
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Fri Aug 07 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0510 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 19N
southward, moving W 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby
precipitation is in the monsoon trough.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 48W/49W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 15 knots. Precipitation: any other
nearby precipitation is in the monsoon trough/ITCZ.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 60W/61W, from 19N
southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 90 nm to the
east of the wave, and within 330 nm to the west of the wave,
from 12N to 17N.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The tropical wave is along 93W, from 19N southward,
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and
it extends offshore, into the eastern Pacific Ocean for about
150 nm. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward between 90W
and 93W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Senegal near
16N176W, to 16N22W, to 12N30W. The ITCZ continues from 12N30W to
10N40W, 08N50W 09N55W and 09N60W. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is within 120 nm to the south of the ITCZ,
between 36W and the 38W/39W tropical wave. Widely scattered to
scattered moderate and isolated strong is within 135 nm to the
north of the ITCZ between 47W and 57W. Isolated moderate is
elsewhere from 20N southward from 60W eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico,
with a trough. The trough is supporting a stationary front, that
extends into the north central Gulf of Mexico. The stationary
front passes through SW Alabama, to SE Louisiana, beyond SW
Louisiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated
strong is to the east of the line that runs from the Florida Big
Bend to 25N90W to the NW corner of the Yucatan Peninsula.
Isolated moderate is elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico.

A tropical wave is moving through the SW corner of the Gulf of
Mexico. The tropical wave is along 93W, from 19N southward,
across the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, into the
eastern Pacific Ocean. Precipitation: scattered to numerous
strong is in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec of southern Mexico, and
it extends offshore, into the eastern Pacific Ocean for about
150 nm. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the
SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, from 21N southward between 90W
and 93W.

A surface ridge passes through Lake Okeechobee in Florida, into
the central sections of the Gulf of Mexico. Broad surface
anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area.

Light to gentle winds will dominate the Gulf waters through
Tuesday night. Stronger winds are expected in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and west of the Yucatan Peninsula, at night due to
local effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and the central
Bahamas, and in the entire Caribbean Sea. One individual
cyclonic circulation center is on top of the Mona Passage, and
the second one is near 13N73W. Precipitation: isolated moderate
to locally strong covers the Caribbean Sea, from 67W westward.
Little, to no significant deep convective precipitation exists
from 13N to Hispaniola and Jamaica, between 70W and Jamaica.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, beyond southern sections of Costa Rica. Precipitation:
scattered to numerous strong in clusters is in Colombia and the
extreme NW sections of Venezuela, from 05N to 10N between 71W
and 77W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. The comparatively strongest winds
will be expected on Saturday night and Sunday. Moderate to fresh
winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the eastern
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers parts of the
Atlantic Ocean from 20N northward between 50W and the central
Bahamas. Individual cyclonic circulation centers are near 29N57W
and 23N70W. A surface trough curves from 30N59W to 26N64W to
27N70W to 29N74W. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered
moderate and locally strong covers the Atlantic Ocean from 20N
northward from 58W westward.

A surface ridge extends from one 1018 mb high pressure center
that is near 28N26W, to a second 1018 mb high pressure center
that is near 26N53W.

Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern waters
through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate
the waters south of 23N from the Great Bahama Bank to the waters
that are to the north of Hispaniola.

$$
mt
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