[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 071010
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W, south of 19N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong
convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 36W and 41W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 51W, south of 19N,
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 07N to 11N between 48W and 56W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 62W, south of 19N, moving
west at 15 knots. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted from 12N to 15N between 61W and 64W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes the coastal sections of Senegal near
15N17W, to 14N24W, to 12N30W. The ITCZ continues from 12N30W to
10N41W, to 08N50W, to 10N61W. Minimal convection is noted along
the convergence zone axis, except that associated with tropical
waves, as indicated above.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico.
A stationary front extends along the north central Gulf coast
from low pressure near Mobile Alabama to near Lake Charles
Louisiana. Isolated showers prevail from the NE Gulf, near the
Big Bend of Florida, to the Bay of Campeche, including the
Yucatan Peninsula. A tropical wave along 95W is exiting the
region.

Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow prevails across the Gulf
waters. Light to gentle winds will dominate the area through
Tuesday night. Stronger winds are expected in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and west of the Yucatan Peninsula at night due to local
effects.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the entire Caribbean
Sea. Isolated moderate to locally strong convection is noted in
the Caribbean Sea, west of 60W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N, from Colombia along 74W
westward, to southern Costa Rica. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is occurring in clusters in northern Colombia
and northern Venezuela, and from 06N to 13N between 77W and 84W.

Fresh to strong trade winds are expected across the central
Caribbean Sea through Tuesday. The strongest winds are expected
to occur Saturday night and Sunday. Moderate to fresh winds are
expected in the Gulf of Honduras and in the eastern Caribbean
Sea through Tuesday night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean
north of 20N between 50W and the central Bahamas. A weak surface
trough is analyzed from 29N62W to 26N68W to 29N75W. A surface
ridge extends from a 1020 mb high near 28N26W, to 1024 mb high
near 26N52W.

Light to gentle winds are expected across the northern waters
through Tuesday. Moderate to fresh easterly winds will dominate
the waters south of 23N from the Great Bahama Bank to the waters
that are to the north of Hispaniola.

$$
mt/dbm
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