[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 062259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
659 PM EDT Thu Aug 6 2020

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2230 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W south of 19N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Dry and stable Saharan air dominates
the environment north of the wave. Scattered strong convection is
noted from 08N to 10N within 180 nm east of the wave axis.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W south of 18N,
moving westward at 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 10N between 47W and 51W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W south of 18N,
moving westward at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted
from 12N to 15N within 120 nm of the wave axis.

A tropical wave extends across southern Mexico and Guatemala along
91W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
noted over the SW Gulf S of 20N and E of 92W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Senegal near
16N16W to 09N32W to 10N40W to 08N46W. The ITCZ extends from
08N50W to 09N57W. Isolated weak convection is occurring within 180
nm N of the ITCZ between 51W and 54W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A weak stationary front extends from near Pensacola, FL over the
north-central Gulf coastal waters. Some isolated showers and
thunderstorms are noted near the front off the coast of SE
Louisiana. Elsewhere, scattered thunderstorms continue over the
SE Gulf offshore waters. Earlier scatterometer data showed light
to gentle winds prevail across the basin, with seas 3 ft or less
based on buoy observations and available altimeter data.

Light to gentle, variable winds will dominate the Gulf waters
through Tue night as a weak surface ridge prevails. Moderate to
fresh NE to E winds are expected at night in the eastern half of
the Bay of Campeche and the adjacent Yucatan peninsula waters
associated with a surface trough. Locally strong winds are likely
at night over the eastern Bay of Campeche tonight through Sat
night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large area of fresh trade winds persists over the central
Caribbean waters between a subtropical ridge axis and the
Colombian low. Some locally stronger winds are likely occurring
near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Peak seas
of 7-9 ft are found in the south-central waters near the stronger
trades. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades prevail across the
rest of the basin. The earlier convection noted over the SW
Caribbean has weakened this evening. A broad upper-level low over
the eastern Caribbean is supporting isolated convection west of
the Lesser Antilles.

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the
NE Pacific monsoon trough extending to Colombia will support
fresh to strong tradewinds across the central basin through Tue.
Strong trades will increase and expand across the northern central
portions over the weekend with the passage of a pair of tropical
waves. Near gale-force winds are expected along the Colombia
coastal waters and the Gulf of Venezuela Sat night. Otherwise,
moderate to fresh easterly winds are expected in the Gulf of
Honduras and in the E Caribbean through Tue night, except for
fresh to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Fri and Sat nights.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak pressure pattern is analyzed across the subtropical
Atlantic waters this evening. Weak low pressure centered NE of the
Bahamas is producing isolated thunderstorms near a trough that
extends from 29N72W to 25N66W. Moderate trades are noted S of 20N
between 40W and 60W, south of 1020 mb high pressure centered near
26N48W. Seas are 4-6 ft within these trades. Elsewhere, mainly
gentle winds prevail across the Atlantic high seas.

A weak low will linger NE of the Bahamas through Sun night before
dissipating. Elsewhere, high pressure will support light to
gentle variable winds, except south of 23N, where moderate to
fresh easterly winds will dominate the waters from the Great
Bahama Bank to the waters north of Hispaniola.

$$
B Reinhart
This weather bulletin was brought to you by:
www.nashvilleweather.net