[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301804
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
204 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1745 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 30/1500 UTC, is near 30.0N
42.6W. Lorenzo is moving NNE at 11 knots. The estimated minimum
central pressure is 962 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are
90 knots with gusts to 110 knots. Scattered moderate to strong
convection is 180 nm on the NW quad and 250 nm on the NE quad.
Scattered showers are seen in the outer bands extending around
400 to 450 nm on the N semicircle from the center. To the south,
scattered showers and tstorms are present 100 nm in the S semi-
circle. A turn to the northeast is expected later today, with an
increasing forward speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western
Azores early on Wednesday. Gradual weakening is expected through
Wednesday. Lorenzo is expected to transition to an extratropical
low by Thursday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 19W, from 17N southward,
moving W 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm on either side of the wave from 09N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 12N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. No significant convection
is noted along the wave. Latest water vapor imagery indicate
drier air present near the wave limiting convection.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 74W, from 18N in Haiti
southward, moving W 5 to 10 knots. Upper level trough in the
NW Caribbean Sea near 20N82W is enhancing scattered moderate
to isolated strong convection along the tropical wave mainly
north of 15N-18N between 70W-77W. This is enhancing convection
over Hispaniola, the Windward Passage, Jamaica and Eastern Cuba.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W to 06N25W to 09N34W. The ITCZ continues at that
point to 10N41W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near
08N44W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is seen from 05N-10N between 33W-39W and scattered showers are
seen W of 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery data shows middle to upper level anticyclonic
wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE to SW oriented surface
ridge spans in the Gulf of Mexico with a 1022 mb high pressure.
Scattered showers and isolated tstorms are seen in the SW corner
of the Gulf of Mexico, from 18N-22N between 92W and 96W. For the
rest of the basin, ridge remains in control across the Gulf of
Mexico. ASCAT data indicates moderate to fresh NE winds across
the southeastern Gulf into the Straits of Florida and moderate
E-SE flow across the western Gulf coast.

A high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast will generally
maintain moderate to fresh winds over the basin through Thu. Weak
low pressure developing over the western Caribbean will support
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf through mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its base
reaching the NW half of Cuba. This in combination with the
tropical wave along 74W is producing scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection from Hispaniola to Cuba. For more
details see section above on tropical waves. In the NW Caribbean
Sea, localized daytime activity is seen from 12N-19N between 81W-
84W near the coast of Nicaragua and Honduras. Additional scattered
moderate convection is seen along the coast of South America
south of 13N between 63W-72W.

The Pacific monsoon trough is along 08N74W in Colombia, across
southern Panama near 07N82W and beyond to 14N92W in the eastern
Pacific Ocean. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
present over the SW Caribbean from 13N southward between 76W-83W.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate
into the tropical N Atlc and Caribbean passages into Wed. Gentle
to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean. A broad
and weak area of low pressure is likely to form over the western
Caribbean by midweek, then move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of Karen are a 1010 mb low pressure center that is
near 31N61W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure center
to 25N63W to 20N69W. Scattered showers and tstorms are developing
along the trough from 20N-24N between 64W-70W. An upper level
trough is in the western sections of the Atlantic Ocean, with its
base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 20N-24N between 70W-79W over the SE/Central Bahamas
and northern Cuba.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into portions
of the SW N Atlantic through Wed. A surface trough N of Puerto
Rico will drift westward over the SE Bahamas by Wed and then over
the NW Bahamas by Thu night. The trough will support fresh to
locally strong northeast to east breezes over the NW Bahamas and
adjacent waters through Tue night.

$$
Torres
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