[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 302325
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
725 PM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 30.9N 42.1W at 30/2100 UTC or
860 nm WSW of the Azores moving NNE at 13 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 957 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90
kt with gusts to 110 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is from 28N-37N between 35W-45W.  A turn to the
northeast is expected later tonight, with an increasing forward
speed tonight through Wednesday. On the forecast track, the center
of Lorenzo is expected to pass near the western Azores early on
Wednesday. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 20W, from 17N southward,
moving W at 10-15 knots. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the
wave axis.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 12N
southward, moving W at 10 knots. Scattered showers are within
90 nm of the wave axis.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, from 19N southward,
moving W at 5-10 knots. Clusters of scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is over Hispaniola,E Cuba, Jamaica, and N
Colombia.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 09N13W to 06N23W to 09N34W. The ITCZ continues at that
point to 10N42W, then resumes west of the tropical wave near
09N46W to the coast of N Brazil near 04N51W. Widely scattered
moderate convection is from 03N-09N between 23W-30W, and from
06N-11N between 35W-41W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered over N Alabama near 34N86W. 10-15 kt E
to SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf of mexico
is mostly void of precipitation. In the upper levels, a large
upper level high is centered over E Texas near 31N91W. Strong
subsidence covers all of the Gulf.

A high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast will generally
maintain moderate to fresh winds over the basin through Thu. Weak
low pressure developing over the western Caribbean will support
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds over the SE Gulf through mid
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 75W. See above. A 1007 mb low is centered
near the Cayman Islands at 19N80W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 120 nm of the center. Elsewhere, clusters of scattered
moderate convection is over Central America and the SW Caribbean.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate
into the tropical N Atlc and Caribbean passages into Wed. Gentle
to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean. A broad
area of low pressure is likely to form over the western Caribbean
by midweek, then move NW toward the Gulf of Mexico.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Isolated moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-24N
between 70W-78W. A 1009 mb remnant low of Karen is centered over
the central Atlantic near 31N64W. A 1020 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 34N22W.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into portions
of the SW N Atlantic through Wed. A surface trough N of Puerto
Rico will drift westward over the SE Bahamas by Wed and then over
the NW Bahamas by Thu night. The trough will support fresh to
locally strong northeast to east breezes over the NW Bahamas and
adjacent waters through Tue night.

$$
Formosa
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