[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 301118
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 30/0900 UTC, is near 28.7N
43.1W. Lorenzo is moving NNE, or 20 degrees, 11 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 957 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 90 knots with gusts to 110 knots.
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 120 nm of the
center in the N semicircle. scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong elsewhere within 360 nm of the center in the N
semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-
Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane watch and a tropical
storm watch have been announced for different parts of the
Azores. A watch typically is issued 48 hours before the
anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds.
These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via
the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please
go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 18W/19W, from 18N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 180 nm to the E of the
tropical wave from 10N to 17N, and within 100 nm to the W
of the wave from 10N to 14N.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 43W/44W, from 13N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 120 nm to the E of the wave from 07N to 12N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 19N in
Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an
inverted trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the
area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong within 180 nm on either side of the wave from 09N to 12N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
around Hispaniola, and in the waters of the Windward Passage,
and between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N southward to the
the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas, between 63W and
79W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its
base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Other isolated moderate
is in the Caribbean Sea from 12N northward from 64W westward.
Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and
the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the
Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W, to 07N17W 07N26W 09N33W 08N35W. The ITCZ is
along 08N35W 07N38W 05N42W. Precipitation: widely scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 270 nm to the S of the
monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W and 39W. Isolated moderate
within 360 nm to the N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ between 30W
and the tropical wave, and elsewhere within 240 nm to the S of
the monsoon trough between 18W and 30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong is in the SW corner of the
Gulf of Mexico, from 22N southward between 90W and 95W adjacent
to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula.

A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge generally will
maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday.
Weak low pressure, developing in the western Caribbean Sea, will
support fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the SE Gulf of
Mexico through mid week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 73W/74W, from 19N in
Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow is in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an
inverted trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the
area of the tropical wave. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong within 180 nm on either side of the wave from 09N to 12N.
Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers are elsewhere
around Hispaniola, and in the waters of the Windward Passage,
and between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Isolated to widely
scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N southward to the
the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas, between 63W and
79W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean, with its
base reaching the NW half of Cuba. Other isolated moderate is in
the Caribbean Sea from 12N northward from 64W westward.
Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and
the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the
Caribbean Sea.

The upper level cyclonic circulation center, that was near
14N82W, 24 hours ago, now is part of an inverted trough that
extends from the Gulf of Honduras southward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, across southern
Panama near 08N81W, beyond 08N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
along 80W, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Panama
to Guatemala. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
strong, in clusters, within 240 nm on either side of the monsoon
trough between 73W in Colombia and 84W.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to
propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea passages through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds
will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is
possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the
western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week, and then move
NW toward the Gulf of Mexico..

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1010 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N63W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 27N63W and 21N68W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
is moving across the area of the low pressure center and the
surface trough. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to widely
scattered strong from 32N to 37N between 53W and 61W. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 20N northward between 53W and 70W.

An upper level trough is in the western sections of the Atlantic
Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba.
Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong rainshowers
are elsewhere around Hispaniola, and in the waters of the
Windward Passage, and between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti. Isolated
to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong from 25N
southward to the the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas,
between 63W and 79W. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic
Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into
parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface
trough, to the N of Puerto Rico, will drift westward into the SE
Bahamas by Wednesday, and then to the NW Bahamas by Friday
night. The trough will support fresh to locally strong NE-to-E
breezes in the NW Bahamas and the adjacent waters, through
Tuesday night.

$$
mt
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