[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 300541
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 30/0300 UTC, is near 27.6N
43.5W. Lorenzo is moving NNE, or 20 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 952 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 95 knots with gusts to 115 knots.
Precipitation: Scattered to numerous strong within 250 nm of the
center in the NE quadrant. Widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong elsewhere within 480 nm of the
center in the NE semicircle. Lorenzo is a category 2 hurricane
on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A hurricane watch
and a tropical storm watch have been announced for different
parts of the Azores. A watch typically is issued 48 hours before
the anticipated first occurrence of tropical storm-force winds.
These are conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous. The PUBLIC ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via
the WMO header WTNT33 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCPAT3.
The FORECAST/ADVISORIES for LORENZO are available via the WMO
header WTNT23 KNHC, and via the AWIPS header MIATCMAT3. Please
go to the website, also, www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 17W/18W, from 17N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: Scattered
moderate to isolated strong within 300 nm to the E of the
tropical wave from 10N to 14N, mostly in Africa.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 41W/42W, from 13N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate to locally strong within 75 nm on either side of the
wave from 08N to 13N.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 19N in
Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Cyclonic wind flow is
in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an inverted
trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area of
the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong from the Windward Passage to 24N
between 70W and 80W, across the Greater Antilles and parts of
the Bahamas. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean,
with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. A surface trough
also is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N60W 22N66W 20N70W.
Other isolated moderate from 12N northward from 64W westward.
Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and
the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the
Caribbean Sea.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border sections of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, to 07N17W 08N35W 06N40W. The ITCZ is
along 05N43W 03N47W 03N51W. Precipitation: scattered moderate to
strong within 150 nm to the S of the monsoon trough between 30W
and 37W. Isolated moderate elsewhere within 210 nm to the S of
the monsoon trough between 16W and 30W; within 240 nm to the N
of the monsoon trough between 28W and 40W, and between 45W and
51W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to strong from 16N to 21N between 90W and 93W
from Guatemala to the western sections of the Yucatan Peninsula,
including the adjacent waters of the SW Gulf of Mexico.

A northern Gulf of Mexico coast surface ridge generally will
maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday.
It is possible that weak low pressure, developing in the western
Caribbean Sea, may increase the east wind speeds in the southern
and southeastern parts of the Gulf of Mexico mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W/73W, from 19N in
Haiti southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Cyclonic wind flow is
in the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward, with an inverted
trough. Upper level NE wind flow is moving across the area of
the tropical wave. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered
moderate and isolated strong from the Windward Passage to 24N
between 70W and 80W, across the Greater Antilles and parts of
the Bahamas. An upper level trough is in the Atlantic Ocean,
with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. A surface trough
also is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N60W 22N66W 20N70W.
Other isolated moderate from 12N northward from 64W westward.
Some of this precipitation is near the cyclonic wind flow and
the upper level inverted trough from 70W eastward, in the
Caribbean Sea.

The upper level cyclonic circulation center, that was near
14N82W, 24 hours ago, now is an inverted trough that extends
from the Gulf of Honduras southward.

The monsoon trough is along 09N73W in Colombia, across southern
Panama near 08N81W, beyond 08N85W in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
along 80W, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean coast from Panama
to Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered strong in clusters, from
Panama to 12N between the Lake Maracaibo Venezuela area and
western Panama coastal areas.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to
propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea passages through early this week. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is
possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the
western Caribbean Sea by the middle of the week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N62W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 26N62W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is moving
across the area of the low pressure center and the surface
trough. Precipitation: Scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 33N to 35N between 57W and 61W. Isolated moderate within 30
nm on either side of 29N65W 31N61W 32N60W.

An upper level trough is in the western sections of the Atlantic
Ocean, with its base reaching the NW half of Cuba. A surface
trough also is in the Atlantic Ocean, along 23N60W 22N66W
20N70W. Precipitation: widely scattered to scattered moderate
and isolated strong from the Windward Passage to 24N between 70W
and 80W, across the Greater Antilles and parts of the Bahamas.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into
parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface
trough, to the east of the area, will drift westward into the
forecast waters early this week. This situation will lead to
fresh NE-to-E breezes across the area.

$$
mt
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