[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 292351
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
751 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 26.9N 44.2W at 29/2100 UTC or
1090 nm WSW of the Azores moving NNE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 948 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100
kt with gusts to 120 kt. Numerous strong convection is within 60
nm of the center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection
is elsewhere from 24N-32N between 37W-47W. The latest ASCAT pass
shows that Lorenzo's wind field is quite large. Interests in the
Azores should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches for those
islands could be issued later today or tonight. Lorenzo is a
category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Gradual weakening is expected over the next couple of days, but
Lorenzo is expected to remain a large hurricane throughout that
time. Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under
AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov,
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is over W Africa along 15W from 04N-18N, moving W
at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
mostly inland from 08N-17N between 10W-15W.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 40W/41W from 02N-13N,
moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 120
nm of the wave axis.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 72W from 08N-19N,
moving W at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is over Hispaniola, N Colombia, and NW Venezuela.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31W to 06N39W,
then continues W of a tropical wave from 05N43W to the coast of N
Brazil near 03N51W. Besides the convection mentioned in the
tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection is from
05N-10N between 28W-35W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1022 mb high is centered over N Georgia near 34N84W. SE return
flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered moderate convection is
along the coast of S Texas and NE Mexico from 24N-27N between
95W-100W. Further S, scattered moderate convection is over the
Yucatan Peninsula. In the upper levels, a large upper level high
is centered over S Louisiana near 30N93W. Strong subsidence
covers most of the Gulf.

A high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast will
generally maintain moderate to fresh winds over the basin through
Thu. Weak low pressure developing over the western Caribbean may
increase east winds over the southern and southeastern Gulf mid-
week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 72W. See above. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over E Cuba, Honduras,
Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. Of note in the upper levels, an
upper level trough is over Honduras and Nicaragua enhancing
convection.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate
into the tropical N Atlc and Caribbean passages through early
this week. Gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail across the
Caribbean. A broad area of low pressure may form over the western
Caribbean by midweek.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Scattered moderate convection is over the S Bahamas from 20N-23N
between 71W-78W. A surface trough is E of the Bahamas from 23N61W
to 19N69W. Isolated moderate convection is within 60 nm of the
trough. The 1011 mb remnant low of Karen is centered over the
central Atlantic near 32N60W. A 1021 mb high is over the E
Atlantic near 36N17W.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into
portions of the SW N Atlantic through Wed. A surface trough E of
the area will drift westward into the SW N Atlantic early this
week. This will lead to fresh northeast to east breezes across the
area.

$$
Formosa
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