[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291711
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
111 PM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1650 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 29/1500 UTC, is near 25.9N
44.4W, or about 1145 nm SW of the Azores. Lorenzo is moving NNE at
9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum
sustained winds are near 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Numerous
moderate to scattered strong convection is within 270 nm NE quad,
240 nm SE quad, 90 nm SW quad and 120 nm NW quad. Scattered
moderate convection is elsewhere within 360 nm E semicircle, 150
nm SW quad and 210 nm NW quad. The latest ASCAT pass shows that
Lorenzo's wind field is quite large. Interests in the Azores
should monitor the progress of Lorenzo. Watches for those islands
could be issued later today or tonight. Please read the latest
NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23
KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 12N southward,
moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within
120 nm W and within 210 nm E of the wave axis from 04N-12N.

A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 70W from 08N-19N,
moving W around 15 kt. Isolated moderate convection is within 210
nm of the wave axis, except for scattered moderate convection
north of 16.5N between 67W-71W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N31W. The ITCZ extends from 08N31 to 06N37W, then
continues W of a tropical wave from 05N41W to 05N45W. Isolated
moderate convection is along and within 180 nm S of the monsoon
trough and ITCZ between 26W-36W. Isolated to scattered moderate
convection is east of 20W from 04N-11N.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Surface high pressure ridging covers most of the Gulf of Mexico,
emanating from a 1025 mb surface high centered near Asheville
North Carolina. Mid and upper-level ridging cover the Gulf of
Mexico. A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Mexico
from 23N98W to 19N96W. This trough, combined with mid to upper
level moisture emanating from Tropical Storm Narda in the East
Pacific, is inducing scattered moderate showers and isolated
tstorms in the SW Gulf of Mexico south of 26N and west of 91.5W.
Elsewhere some light showers are noted near the SE coast of
Louisiana.

A high pressure ridge along the northern Gulf coast will
generally maintain moderate to fresh winds over the basin through
Thu. Weak low pressure developing to the south and southeast of
the Yucatan peninsula may lead to some stronger east winds over
the southern and southeastern Gulf mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A mid-level trough is near the Mona Passage and the Dominican
Republic. Upper-level divergence is located over this same area.
As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen in the Mona
Passage and over the Dominican Republic. Upper level cyclonic
wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea west of 80W and south of 20N.
Isolated moderate showers and tstorms cover the area of the
northern Caribbean inside a box from 15N76W to 21N85W to 22N75W
to 15N76W, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. The East
Pacific monsoon trough pass over N Colombia, Panama and western
Costa Rica. Scattered moderate with embedded isolated strong
convection is seen over the far SW Caribbean south of 11N and west
of 80W, with isolated moderate convection south of 11N between
76W-80W. Of note, isolated showers and tstorms are seen in the SE
Caribbean from 10N-12N between 61W-67W.

Large swell generated from distant Hurricane Lorenzo will continue
to propagate into the Caribbean passages through Tuesday. Gentle
to moderate trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean. A broad
area of low pressure may form over the western Caribbean by Wed.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A mid-level trough is near the Mona Passage and the Dominican
Republic. Upper-level divergence is located over this same area.
As a result, scattered moderate convection is seen from 18N-23N
between 67W-73W, including the Mona Passage, Dominican Republic
and SE Bahamas.

The remnants of Karen are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 32N59W. A surface trough extends southward from the low
pressure center to 21N60W. Isolated moderate convection is from
20N-24N between 58W-67W. Scattered moderate convection is north of
30.5N between 56W-62W.

Large swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to
propagate into portions of the SW N Atlantic through Wednesday.
Otherwise, a surface trough will form N of Puerto Rico by Mon,
then drift westward to the SE Bahamas by midweek. This will lead
to fresh east and northeast breezes across the area.

$$
Hagen
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