[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 291100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
805 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 29/0900 UTC, is near 25.1N
44.6W. Lorenzo is moving N, or 10 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 135 knots with gusts to 165 knots.
Precipitation: Numerous strong within 150 nm of the center in
the E semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
elsewhere within 450 nm of the center in the NE semicircle, and
within 180 nm of the center in the SW semicircle. Lorenzo is a
category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W, from 12N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 180 nm to the east of the wave, and within 150
nm to the west of the wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W/69W, from
20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 390 nm to the west of the wave, and within 180
nm to the east of the wave, from 18N southward. Scattered strong
from 18N in Puerto Rico to 21N between 65W and 68W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
from 09N to 10N between 13W and 14W, to 08N17W 09N24W, and
08N28W. The ITCZ continues from 08N28W to 08N32W, 06N37W, and
04N43W. Precipitation: Isolated to widely scattered moderate and
locally strong within 300 nm to the south of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, and within 240 nm to the north of the monsoon
trough/ITCZ, elsewhere from the 38W/39W tropical wave eastward.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
widely scattered to scattered moderate and isolated strong from
Guatemala and Belize and the Yucatan Peninsula to 25N westward
to 100W, including in the Gulf of Mexico from 25N southward from
90W westward.

Precipitation that is related to T.S. NARDA, which is within 80
nm of the coast of Mexico in the eastern Pacific Ocean, just to
the west of 100W, is in the eastern Pacific Ocean waters of
Mexico between the Gulf of Tehuantepec and 106W.

A surface ridge, along the northern Gulf coast, generally will
maintain moderate to fresh winds in the basin through Thursday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N82W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 77W
westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong
from 80W westward. A surface trough is in the SW corner of the
Caribbean Sea, from the NE coast of Nicaragua to the western
coast of Panama. A second surface trough is along 86W/87W,
from central Honduras to 19N.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 77W
eastward. A small part of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a
trough, is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate to locally strong elsewhere from 12N northward between
65W and 80W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from northern Colombia near
73W, to Panama along 80W, and along the eastern Pacific Ocean
coast from Panama to Guatemala. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong from 07N to 10N between the border of Venezuela
and Colombia and 81W.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to
propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea passages through Tuesday. Gentle to moderate trade winds
will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is
possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the
western Caribbean Sea by Wednesday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1012 mb low pressure center that is
near 31N59W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 25N58W and 20N59W. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow
is moving across the area of the low pressure center and the
surface trough. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally
strong within 240 nm to the south of the line 25N75W 22N59W.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into
parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean through Wednesday. A surface
trough will form to the north of Puerto Rico by Monday, and then
it will drift westward to the SE Bahamas by the middle of the
week.

$$
mt
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