[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 290535
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
205 AM EDT Sun Sep 29 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0520 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

The center of Hurricane Lorenzo, at 29/0300 UTC, is near 24.2N
44.9W. Lorenzo is moving N, or 360 degrees, 9 knots. The
estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb. The maximum
sustained wind speeds are 140 knots with gusts to 160 knots.
Precipitation: Numerous strong within 150 nm of the center in
the E semicircle, and within 120 nm of the center in the W
semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong elsewhere
within 440 nm of the center in the NE quadrant. Lorenzo is a
category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Please read the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO
headers MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more
details. Lorenzo becomes the strongest hurricane in history this
far to the north and to the east in the Atlantic basin. Please
read the latest NHC forecast/ advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W/38W, from 12N
southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 240 nm to the east of the wave, and within 360
nm to the west of the wave.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/68W, from
20N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated
moderate within 300 nm to the west of the wave, and within 260
nm to the east of the wave.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 08N20W and 06N30W. The ITCZ continues from 06N30W
to 05N36W, 08N51W, and to 07N59W in northern Guyana.
Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong within 70 nm of the
coast of Africa from 08N to 10N. Isolated moderate within 450 nm
to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 200 nm to the
north of the monsoon trough between 25W and 30W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong from 120 nm to 180 nm to the north
of the ITCZ between 31W and 32W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Satellite imagery and GFS model data show middle level to upper
level anticyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. A NE-to-SW
oriented surface ridge spans the Gulf of Mexico. Precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong in southern Mexico,
between 90W and 99W, from the Yucatan Peninsula to the coastal
plains and near coastal waters of Mexico.

High pressure will cover the area through Wednesday.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

An upper level cyclonic circulation center is near 14N82W. Upper
level cyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 77W
westward. Precipitation: scattered moderate to isolated strong
from 10N to 14N between 79W and 83W in NE Nicaragua. Isolated
moderate elsewhere from 80W westward.

Upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the area from 77W
eastward. A small part of upper level cyclonic wind flow, with a
trough, is in the SE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Isolated
moderate to locally strong from 13N northward between 62W and
80W.

The monsoon trough is along 09N/10N from northern Colombia near
74W, to the coast of Costa Rica along 10N, and then
northwestward across Nicaragua, through southern Honduras and
southern Guatemala, toward the Gulf of Tehuantepec.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong from 10N southward
between Colombia and 78W.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will continue to
propagate into the tropical N Atlantic Ocean and the Caribbean
Sea passages through early next week. Gentle to moderate trade
winds will prevail across the rest of the Caribbean Sea. It is
possible that a broad area of low pressure may form in the
western Caribbean Sea by the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The remnants of KAREN are a 1011 mb low pressure center that is
near 31N59W. A surface trough extends from the low pressure
center to 28N57W 26N57W and 23N58W. Upper level anticyclonic
wind flow is moving across the area of the low pressure center
and the surface trough. Precipitation: Isolated moderate to
locally strong within 240 nm to the south of the line 27N74W
23N58W.

Swell, generated from Hurricane Lorenzo, will propagate into
parts of the SW N Atlantic Ocean during this weekend and early
next week. A surface trough will drift westward across the
forecast waters, from early next week into the middle of the
week.

$$
mt
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