[Tropical] Tropical Weather Discussion

[EMWIN Server]

AXNT20 KNHC 282343
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
743 PM EDT Sat Sep 28 2019

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Lorenzo is centered near 23.3N 45.0W at 28/2100 UTC or
1280 nm SW of the Azores moving N at 9 kt. Estimated minimum
central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115
kt with gusts to 140 kt. Numerous strong convection is from 22N-
25N between 43W-47W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is elsewhere from 21N-27N between 39W-48W. On the
forecast track, the center of Lorenzo will be approaching the
Azores on Tuesday. Lorenzo is a category 4 hurricane on the
Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are
possible during the next day or so. Lorenzo is expected to
gradually weaken through Tuesday, but it will remain a large and
potent hurricane while it approaches the Azores. Please read the
latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT3/
WTNT23 KNHC, or www.hurricanes.gov, for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 36W, from 12N southward,
moving W at 10-15 kt. This wave is well-depicted by model
diagnostics and TPW imagery. Widely scattered moderate convection
is from 08N-10N between 30W-36W.

An eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 65W, from 20N
southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Widely scattered moderate
convection is over the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and
surrounding waters. Scattered showers are elsewhere within 90 nm
of the wave axis from 10N-15N.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea
near 10N14W to 06N30W. The ITCZ extends from 06N30W to 06N35W. The
itcz resumes W of a tropical wave near 06N37W and continues to
08N50W to the coast of Venezuela near 09N60W. Besides the
convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, widely
scattered moderate convection is from 04N-10N between 26W-30W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

A 1021 mb high is centered off the coast of South Carolina near
32N78W. SE return flow is over the Gulf of Mexico. Scattered
moderate convection is along the coast of Texas from 26N-29N
between 95W-98W. Further S, isolated moderate convection is over
the SW Gulf from 19N-23N between 94W-99W. Elsewhere, scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is over W Cuba. In the
upper levels, a large upper level high is centered over the Gulf
near 27N93W. Strong subsidence covers most of the Gulf.

Surface high pressure ridging will prevail across the region
through Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tropical wave is along 65W. See above. Scattered moderate to
strong convection is over Hispaniola, E Cuba, and Jamaica.
Elsewhere, moderate to isolated strong convection is over
Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, N Colombia, and NW
Venezuela. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level low is
centered over the SW Caribbean near 14N81W.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will continue to propagate
into the tropical N Atlantic and Caribbean passages through early
next week. Otherwise gentle to moderate trade winds will prevail
across the Caribbean. A broad area of low pressure may form over
the western Caribbean by the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
A surface trough is E of the Bahamas. Isolated moderate convection
is from 22N-26N between 69W-76W. The 1011 mb remnant low of Karen
is centered over the central Atlantic near 30N58W. A surface
trough extends S from the low to 28N56W to 24N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is from 26N-31N between 56W-60W. A 1022 mb
high is over the E Atlantic near 34N23W.

Swell generated from Hurricane Lorenzo will propagate into
portions of the SW N Atlantic this weekend and early next week.
Otherwise, a surface trough will drift westward across the
forecast waters early next week into the middle of the week.

$$
Formosa
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