[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

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WTUS82 KMLB 131005
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Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 3
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092019
605 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for Coastal Volusia

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Volusia, Indian
      River, Martin, Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 420 miles southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about 360
      miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 24.6N 75.2W
    - Storm Intensity 30 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 315 degrees at 6 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

A tropical disturbance will move northwest across the Bahama
Islands today, and is forecast to gradually become better organized.
It is forecast to become a tropical storm as it nears the east central
Florida coast late Saturday. Until the system becomes better organized,
there remains considerable uncertainty in the exact forecast track.

Given the evolving threat and associated uncertainty, a tropical storm
watch is now in effect for all East Central Florida coastal counties.
This area includes Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River, Brevard, and
Volusia Counties. Assessments will be made later this morning
regarding possible inland watches, as well as any needed warnings.

Regardless of the development and exact track, there will be an
increased chance for tropical storm winds and gusts, along with
periods of heavy rain into this weekend. The threat is highest for
coastal sections where wind gusts could reach 60 mph in areas
closest to the storm, especially from Sebastian Inlet northward.
Multi-day rain totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for the event,
along with isolated peak amounts of 5 to 6 inches as based on the
latest forecast track.

It is too early to determine exact impacts for specific locations. In
general, high winds and locally flooding rain are the main concerns,
especially in closer proximity of the core of the system. However,
conditions at the coast will be a significant concern too. The surf is
likely to become rough with some additional beach erosion. Rip
currents will become stronger and more numerous ahead of the storm.

Folks are encouraged to remain informed to changes in the forecast as
the event unfolds. Factor the potential for tropical storm force winds
and heavy rains into your plans this weekend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
      mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
    - Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
      or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
      bridges and other elevated roadways.
    - Scattered power and communications outages.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts across east central Florida. Potential impacts
include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
      Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
      swollen and overflow in spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts across coastal
portions of east central Florida. Potential impacts include:
    - The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the execution
      of emergency plans during tropical events.
    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.
    - Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings, chimneys
      toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or overturned,
      large tree tops and branches snapped off, shallow-rooted trees
      knocked over, moving vehicles blown off roads, and small boats
      pulled from moorings.

Elsewhere across east central Florida, little to no impact is
anticipated.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain and damaging
wind gusts extend well away from the center of the storm.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings.
If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around NOON EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Volkmer/Sharp
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