[Tropical] Hurricane Local Statement

[EMWIN Server]

WTUS82 KMLB 131542
HLSMLB
FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-132200-

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Local Statement Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service Melbourne FL  AL092019
1142 AM EDT Fri Sep 13 2019

This product covers EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA

**TROPICAL STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA
COAST**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
    - A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for Coastal Volusia, Indian
      River, Martin, Northern Brevard, Southern Brevard, and St. Lucie

* STORM INFORMATION:
    - About 440 miles east-southeast of Cape Canaveral FL or about
      380 miles east-southeast of Stuart FL
    - 25.0N 74.5W
    - Storm Intensity 30 mph
    - Movement Northwest or 305 degrees at 1 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

A tropical disturbance will move northwest near or across the central
and northern Bahama Islands today through tonight, while gradually
becoming better organized. It is forecast to become a tropical storm as
it makes its closest approach the east central Florida coast Saturday
and Saturday night. Until the system becomes better organized, there
remains considerable uncertainty in the exact forecast track.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for all coastal counties in
East Central Florida. This includes Martin, Saint Lucie, Indian River,
Brevard, and Volusia Counties.

Regardless of the development and exact track, there will be an
increased chance for tropical storm force wind gusts, along with
periods of heavy rain tonight through Saturday night. This threat will
be highest along the coast, and especially the barrier islands from
Sebastian Inlet northward, where wind gusts could reach 50 mph.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches are forecast for the event, along with
isolated amounts of 5 to 6 inches as based on the latest forecast
track.

Conditions along the immediate coast, including the beaches and surf
zone remain a significant concern. The surf is expected to become
increasingly rough with large breaking waves, and moderate beach
erosion around the times of high tide through early Sunday morning.
The threat for numerous strong and potentially deadly Rip Currents
will remain high through this weekend.

The next high tide cycles will occur along the Florida east coast
around 830 PM tonight, between 845 AM and 900 AM Saturday morning,
and between 900 PM and 915 PM Saturday night.

Persons in east central Florida should keep track of the latest
forecasts and statements from the National Hurricane Center, and your
National Weather Service office in Melbourne through this weekend.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* FLOODING RAIN:
Prepare for locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible limited
impacts across east central Florida, mainly over Brevard and Volusia
Counties. Potential impacts include:
    - Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
    - Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise. Small streams, creeks,
      canals, arroyos, and ditches may become swollen and overflow in
      spots.
    - Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
      vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
      occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
      areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
      near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
      closures.

* WIND:
Prepare for hazardous wind having possible limited impacts along the
coast, especially the barrier islands of Brevard and Volusia Counties.
Potential impacts in this area include:

    - Isolated damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and
      unanchored mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown
      about.
    - A few large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
      uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
      shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
    - Hazardous driving conditions on bridges and other elevated
      roadways.
    - Isolated power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* TORNADOES:
Prepare for a tornado event having possible limited impacts along the
immediate coast of Volusia, Brevard, Indian River, Saint Lucie, and
Martin Counties. Potential impacts include:

    - A few places may experience tornado damage, along with power
      and communications disruptions.


Elsewhere across EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Little to no impacts are anticipated at this time along the central
Florida Atlantic coast.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions.

* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to check your emergency plan and emergency supplies
kit.

When making safety and preparedness decisions, do not focus on the
exact forecast track since hazards such as flooding rain and damaging
wind gusts extend well away from the center of the storm.

Check on those who may not be fully aware of the situation or who are
unable to make personal preparations.

If you are a visitor, know the name of the county in which you are
located and where it is relative to current watches and warnings.
If staying at a hotel, ask the management staff about their onsite
disaster plan.

Closely monitor weather.gov, NOAA Weather Radio and local news
outlets for official storm information. Listen for possible changes
to the forecast.

* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Melbourne FL around 6 PM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$
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